Global Economy

US: U.S. stocks ended the week lower as renewed trade tensions and worries over the prolonged government shutdown dampened sentiment. Earlier gains driven by AI-related optimism (highlighted by a strategic partnership between AMD and OpenAI that lifted AMD shares over 20%) were erased after President Donald Trump threatened “a massive increase of tariffs on Chinese products” in response to China’s proposed rare earth export controls. Gold prices surged past $4,000 per ounce for the first time, reflecting heightened global uncertainty. With the U.S. government shutdown delaying key data releases, investors are now turning their focus to the upcoming Q3 earnings season, beginning October 14 with JPMorgan Chase, where analysts expect the S&P 500 to post its ninth straight quarter of earnings growth.

Sub-Saharan African Economies

China: China’s exports surged in October, lifting the trade surplus to $58.44 billion, well above forecasts and September’s $37 billion. The surplus with the U.S. also widened to $31.37 billion as strong global demand for Chinese goods, especially medical supplies, supported growth. Analysts said the export momentum exceeded expectations and could remain firm as China’s factories outpace global rivals, though renewed European lockdowns may pose risks. Imports grew 4.7% year-on-year, slower than September’s pace but still marking a second month of gains. The solid trade data is expected to aid China’s economic recovery, which grew 4.9% in Q3, keeping it ahead of other major economies despite slower full-year growth.

Angola: The annual inflation rate in Angola eased to 18.24% in September 2025, reaching a new low since November 2023, continuing a downward trend that began in August 2024. The relative stability of the kwanza, coupled with better availability of goods, has helped ease inflationary pressures. Price-growth moderated across several categories, including food & non-alcoholic beverages (18.48% vs 19.24% in August); alcoholic beverages & tobacco (19.22% vs 20.55%); clothing & footwear (18.43% vs 19.64%); health (22.11% vs 23.69%); restaurants & hotels (18.12% vs 19.73%) and miscellaneous goods & services (19.96% vs 20.54%). On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 1.08% in September, after a 1.09% increase in the prior month.

Egypt: The inflation rate in Egypt eased for the fourth consecutive month to 11.7% in September 2025, down from 12.0% in August, following a four-month high in May driven by rising fuel prices. This marked the lowest inflation rate since March 2022, primarily due to a slowdown in food inflation, which fell to its lowest level since April 2021 (1.4% vs 2.1% in August).  However, prices accelerated for both housing (18.2% vs 16.2%) and clothing (14.9% vs 14.8%). On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.8% in September, accelerating from a 0.4% increase in August, marking the fastest pace in four months.

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

  • Nigeria’s external debt repayment fell 6.5% y/y to $2.86bn in 8M’25, while the government seeks a $2.3bn external loan and plans its debut $500m sovereign Sukuk to fund the 2025 budget.
  • Nigeria’s Composite PMI rose to 54.0 in September 2025 from 51.7 in August, reflecting stronger activity across agriculture, industry, and services amid stable FX, easing inflation, and improved demand, though the World Bank notes 139 million Nigerians remain multidimensionally poor despite reform-led gains.

Nigerian equity market: Industrial goods sector leads weekly gains as equities rally further

The Nigerian stock market sustained its bullish momentum for the fifth consecutive week, with the NGX All-Share Index surpassing the 146,000 mark. The index advanced by 2.37% week-on-week to close at 146,988.04 points, while market capitalization rose to ₦93.30 trillion. The rally was supported by gains across the industrial, insurance, oil and gas, and consumer goods sectors, all of which closed in positive territory. Market sentiment was largely driven by strong performances in heavyweight stocks such as EUNISELL, MTNN, SEPLAT, and DANGCEM. Overall, the industrial goods sector led the week’s gains with a 4.23% WoW increase, reinforcing broad-based optimism in the equities market.

Nigerian fixed-income market: Bullish sentiment prevails as CBN sells OMO and NTB at lower rates.

At the start of the week, the CBN conducted an OMO auction issuing over ₦3.03 trillion in bills, leading to a drop in system liquidity to about ₦3 trillion. Midweek, the DMO held a successful NTB auction, offering ₦570 billion at lower rates despite receiving bids totaling ₦1.06 trillion. Yields on the 181-day and 364-day bills fell to 15.25% and 15.75%, down from 15.30% and 16.78% previously. Buoyant liquidity supported strong demand for treasury bills and bonds, causing their average yields to decline by 57 and 29 basis points week-on-week. Conversely, Nigeria’s Eurobond market ended weaker with yields rising 17 basis points to 8.06%, weighed down by selling amid concerns of new supply.