Last week, there was no shortage of movement across markets. Prices shifted, yields adjusted, and key data points came in across the U.S., Africa, and Nigeria.
But movement on its own doesn’t tell you much. What matters is understanding what is driving those changes and how they connect, especially in a market like Nigeria, where global trends, oil prices, and local liquidity all feed into investment outcomes.
This report walks through those shifts and breaks down what they mean across global markets, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the domestic economy.
Global Economy
US: Record Highs Amid Collapsing Consumer Confidence
US equities closed the week mostly higher, with the Nasdaq Composite leading gains. This was supported by continued strength in AI-driven stocks, while several major indices reached record highs. The Dow Jones, however, declined, creating divergence among major indices. This indicates that large-cap growth stocks are carrying the market while industrials, financials, and other Dow components are lagging. That kind of narrow leadership often marks late-stage rallies, when fewer stocks participate.
Stocks began the week cautiously, weighed down by geopolitical tension tied to U.S.–Iran relations. Sentiment shifted midweek after a ceasefire extension helped ease these concerns, allowing equities to recover and regain momentum even as uncertainty lingered. Earnings season remained a key driver, with 84% of S&P 500 companies reporting results above expectations. That’s an exceptionally high beat rate. It demonstrates that companies can navigate challenging conditions and maintain profitability despite earlier concerns about slowing growth, elevated costs, and geopolitical risks. Year-over-year earnings growth reached 15.1%, which is strong by historical standards and helps justify elevated valuations.
Investor focus stayed on AI demand, consumer resilience, and how companies are managing rising costs. The AI investment cycle continues driving capital into semiconductors, data center infrastructure, and cloud services. Companies that can demonstrate AI revenue generation or cost savings from AI implementation are being rewarded with premium valuations. Those that can’t articulate an AI strategy are being left behind as capital rotates toward perceived AI winners.
Away from equities, the economic data painted a more layered picture. US retail sales rose sharply by 1.7% in March, driven largely by higher gas prices. Core sales also posted solid gains, indicating that underlying economic strength exists beneath the energy-driven headline number.
But at the same time, consumer sentiment moved in the opposite direction. The University of Michigan index fell to 49.8, reflecting growing concern around inflation. Business activity offered some reassurance, with PMI data showing stronger manufacturing output and slight expansion in services, though underlying demand remained mixed.
Inflation, however, is where things become more decisive. Pressures intensified as input and output prices rose at their fastest pace in nearly 4 years. This signals that cost pressures are building again. When businesses face rapidly rising input costs, they either absorb the margin hit or pass the costs on to customers. Most pass them on, which is why producer inflation eventually becomes consumer inflation.
In fixed-income markets, Treasury yields rose, resulting in negative returns, while corporate bonds outperformed Treasuries, even though they also declined, indicating a degree of resilience relative to government debt.
Oil: 17% Weekly Surge Despite Diplomatic Efforts
Brent crude futures traded around $105.70 per barrel, extending gains for a fifth consecutive session and posting a weekly increase of about 17%. The move was driven largely by ongoing supply concerns rather than demand strength. It reflects markets repricing supply risk upward as diplomatic hopes faded and physical constraints became clearer. The White House indicated plans to send envoys to Pakistan, where Iranian officials are also expected, raising cautious hopes for a potential restart of stalled US-Iran talks and possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran maintained a guarded stance, with reports suggesting that no formal negotiations are planned during Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit. Markets initially rallied on hopes of progress, but the lack of concrete commitments kept oil prices elevated as traders realized supply constraints would not be resolved quickly.
Diplomatic signals slightly reduced the geopolitical risk premium, but markets remain focused on ongoing disruptions as the key shipping route stays largely constrained. The US naval blockade continues to limit Iranian exports. Even if a diplomatic breakthrough occurs and the Strait reopens, analysts caution it could take months for global supply flows to normalize.
The gap between hope-driven price moves and supply reality creates volatility. For economies dependent on stable energy costs, this volatility creates planning challenges and inflation risks that won’t be resolved until supply normalizes rather than just potentially at some future date.
Sub-Saharan African Economies
The Eurobond market reflected improving sentiment across several African economies. Nigerian, Kenyan, and Angolan bonds saw yields compress as international investors continued adding exposure. The sustained rally across African sovereign debt indicates improving sentiment isn’t just a one-week phenomenon but rather a sustained reassessment of regional risk. Overall, the direction of yields suggests that investor appetite for African sovereign debt remains present, though differentiated across countries and maturities.
Morocco: Deflation Ends After Four Months
Consumer prices in Morocco rose 0.9% year-over-year in March 2026 after a 0.6% decrease in February, ending four consecutive months of deflation. When prices are falling, consumers delay purchases in the hope of even lower prices later. Businesses cut production because demand weakens. Debt burdens increase in real terms as the currency strengthens. Breaking the deflationary cycle by returning to modest inflation is actually positive for economic health.
The return to positive inflation was largely driven by a rebound in transportation costs, which jumped to 0.8% from -2.7% in February. That’s a dramatic reversal tied directly to global energy prices. Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation turned positive at 0.5% after falling 2.2% the previous month. Fuel prices affect transportation directly, while food prices are affected indirectly through farming and distribution costs.
Additional upward pressure stemmed from prices of alcoholic beverages & tobacco (3.7% vs 3.7%), clothing & footwear (1% vs 0.9%), miscellaneous goods & services (3.5% vs 3.8%), restaurants & hotels (2% vs 2.1%), and education (2.1% vs 2.1%). Month-over-month, consumer prices rose by 1.2%, the sharpest increase since April 2023. The jump was driven mainly by transportation rising 3% and food climbing 1.9%.
South Africa: Inflation Edges Higher as Energy Impacts Begin
South Africa’s annual inflation rate edged up to 3.1% in March 2026 from 3% the prior month, matching market expectations. This range keeps South Africa within the central bank’s 3-6% target range, albeit near the bottom of that band. The modest uptick reflects the Middle East conflict just starting to feed into domestic prices during March. The full impact of sustained higher energy costs typically shows up with a lag as existing contracts expire, and new pricing takes effect.
Main positive contributors were housing and utilities rising to 5.1% from 4.8%, food and non-alcoholic beverages at 3.6% versus 3.7%, and insurance and financial services climbing to 4.6% from 4.5%. Transportation prices fell at a slower pace to -1.6% from -2.1%. Core inflation, which excludes food, non-alcoholic beverages, fuel, and energy, rose to 3.2% from a seven-month low of 3.0%. Month-over-month, CPI rose 0.6% after a 0.4% increase, showing monthly inflation accelerating.
Domestic Economy
Major Updates During the Week
1. FAAC Disbursement Increases to ₦2.04 Trillion
Nigeria’s Federation Account Allocation Committee disbursed ₦2.04 trillion in March 2026, up from ₦1.89 trillion in February. FAAC distributes revenue collected by the federal government to federal, state, and local governments in accordance with the constitutional allocation formula. The ₦150 billion increase represents about 8% month-over-month growth, boosting near-term liquidity for state and local governments and enabling higher spending on salaries, projects, and services.
The increase was driven by stronger statutory and non-oil revenues. Statutory allocations come from sources like company income tax, customs duties, and value-added tax. Non-oil revenues include mining royalties, agriculture levies, and other federal collections outside petroleum.
However, weaker oil and VAT inflows keep foreign-exchange and bond-market sentiment tied to oil earnings and fiscal pressures. Oil revenue still dominates Nigeria’s federal collections, so months when oil revenue underperforms create fiscal stress regardless of improvements elsewhere. VAT collections tend to track domestic consumption, so weakness there signals either reduced consumer spending or collection challenges. The mixed picture of rising total FAAC amid declining oil and VAT components highlights ongoing dependence on petroleum earnings.
2. Revenue Allocation Formula Review Advances
The Revenue Mobilization Allocation and Fiscal Commission advanced its review of Nigeria’s revenue allocation formula and began nationwide data verification of key distribution indices. Nigeria’s current revenue-sharing structure dates back decades and faces criticism for not reflecting modern economic realities or equitable distribution principles. States and local governments have long called for adjustments to increase their allocations relative to the federal government’s share.
Equity Market: Fourth Consecutive Week of Gains
The Nigerian equities market sustained its bullish momentum for a fourth consecutive week. The NGX All-Share Index rose 3.94% to 225,722.49 points. Market capitalization climbed to ₦145.33 trillion. Four straight weeks of gains totalling over 20% represents an exceptional run that fundamentally reshapes the market’s technical picture and valuation profile.
Market activity was supported by corporate developments, notably Dangote Sugar’s proposed rights issue of 8.10 billion shares at ₦60.00 per share. Rights issues allow existing shareholders to buy new shares at a set price, typically below the current market price.
NGX’s announcement to extend trading hours to 9:00 AM to 4:00 PM, effective April 27th, also supported sentiment. Extended hours provide more flexibility for investors who work during traditional market hours and should increase overall liquidity by spreading trading across a wider time frame. Performance was broadly positive, with 46 equities advancing, led by strong gains in UACN, NASCON, CAP, and WAPCO. However, market breadth remained mixed, with 53 equities declining and notable losses in STANBIC, TRANSPOWER, and FIDSON.
All major sectors closed positively, with the industrial sector leading, advancing 7.70% week-over-week. Industrial stocks rallying that hard suggest investors are positioning for infrastructure spending or an acceleration in economic activity.
Fixed Income Market: Demand Concentrates at the Long End
The Nigerian fixed-income market remained liquid, with the Treasury Bills auction oversubscribed at 3.15 times, driven by strong demand for long-tenor bills. Stop rates held largely steady despite robust demand, reflecting firm pricing. The Debt Management Office is maintaining discipline rather than accepting lower rates just because demand is strong. That preserves fiscal sustainability by not locking in artificially low borrowing costs.
Short-tenor appetite stayed weak. Investors prefer locking in yields for longer periods rather than frequently rolling over short-term bills. This preference typically emerges when investors expect future interest rates to decline.
In the bond market, yields rose at the short end but eased slightly at the long end. Short-end yields jumped 97 basis points to 18.08% from 17.11%. It indicates either selling pressure, reduced demand, or both concentrated in short maturities. Long-end yields fell 5 basis points to 14.98%. The curve steepened significantly as the gap between short and long rates widened. A steepening curve with short rates rising and long rates falling typically occurs when investors expect near-term rate volatility but longer-term stability or declines.
Where This Leaves You
There is still opportunity in the market, but it’s no longer as straightforward as just following momentum. Liquidity is improving locally, global pressures are building, and investor behaviour is starting to reflect that shift.
For you as an investor, being deliberate matters. Understanding the right signals early can shape your positioning better.
