If you’ve been watching your portfolio this past week, you probably didn’t get much sleep. Between oil prices going vertical and the Nigerian stock market hitting a milestone that seemed like a distant dream just a year ago, it’s been a whirlwind.

Here’s the thing: markets are currently juggling two very different stories. One is a global energy crisis that is literally reshaping supply chains overnight. The other is a domestic equity rally that just won’t quit.

Let’s break down what happened, why it matters, and where we go from here.

Global Economy 

US: Fed Holds Steady Amid Energy Concerns

The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% for a second straight meeting. The vote was 11-1, with one policymaker dissenting in favor of a rate cut.  

Updated projections from Fed officials maintained expectations for one additional rate cut this year while revising both inflation and economic growth forecasts upward. That combination is tricky. Higher growth typically gives the Fed room to keep rates elevated, and higher inflation pressure pushes in the same direction. Together, they reduce urgency to cut rates despite ongoing calls for relief from borrowers. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted rising economic uncertainty after the meeting, partly driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the risk of an energy shock that could unsettle inflation expectations. This is the Fed acknowledging what markets already know. When energy prices surge, there is a ripple effect where transportation and manufacturing costs rise, affecting consumers. All of these make it nearly impossible for inflation to fall when oil and gas prices are climbing sharply. 

Producer price data reinforced Powell’s concerns. The producer price index accelerated to 0.7% in February from 0.5% in January, the highest monthly increase since July 2025. Annual PPI rose to 3.4% from 2.9%, both exceeding expectations. Producer inflation matters because it typically leads to consumer inflation. When companies pay more for inputs, they eventually pass those costs to customers. The lag varies, but the direction is predictable. 

Housing data showed mixed signals. The National Association of Home Builders reported builder sentiment ticking up slightly to 38 in March, though affordability pressures persisted, and 37% of builders cut prices to move inventory. Pending home sales rebounded modestly by 1.8% in February after a prior decline. But new home sales dropped sharply to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000 in January, the lowest level since 2022, down from 712,000 in December. When new home sales fall that steeply in a single month, it signals buyers are either priced out or waiting for better conditions. 

Oil: Supply Shock Drives Brent Above $100 

Brent crude surged above the $100 per barrel mark this week, extending its rally to a fifth consecutive weekly gain. Prices briefly traded as high as $110-119 per barrel during the week before moderating slightly toward the end of trading. This represents a continuation of a sharp upward trend since late February, with prices now up roughly 40-50% since the onset of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

The primary driver was a severe supply shock linked to escalating conflict in the region. Attacks on critical energy infrastructure across major producers, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Iran, disrupted production and export capacity. Strikes on key facilities and ports significantly constrained oil flows. This was compounded by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint responsible for roughly 26% of global oil trade. 

To understand why this matters so much, consider what happens when a quarter of global oil trade gets threatened. Buyers who normally source crude from the Gulf scramble for an alternative supply. Sellers with available barrels can demand premium prices. Countries dependent on consistent imports face shortages. The whole market reprices around the new reality of constrained supply. Even temporary disruptions create lasting price effects because oil can’t be produced or shipped instantly to fill gaps. 

Partial shutdowns of oilfields and export terminals, alongside damage to refining and LNG infrastructure, led to a sharp reduction in available barrels. Physical crude markets experienced even more extreme price spikes in some cases, reflecting acute shortages and logistical bottlenecks. When physical markets trade at higher prices than futures markets, it indicates a real, immediate shortage, not just a speculative concern about future supply. 

Policy responses provided only limited relief. Attempts to stabilize prices, such as the temporary easing of sanctions on Iranian oil, added some barrels to the market but couldn’t offset the scale of disruptions elsewhere. When supply shocks are this severe, incremental policy adjustments can’t restore balance quickly. Markets need either the conflict to de-escalate or major producers outside the affected region to significantly increase output. 

Sub-Saharan African Economies 

African Eurobonds showed mixed performance with notable divergence. Nigerian papers strengthened modestly across most maturities. Angolan bonds rallied with yields falling significantly. Kenyan debt was mixed, with some maturities rising and others declining. Egyptian yields rose modestly. Senegalese bonds sold off sharply, with yields jumping over 100 basis points. The divergent performance continues to highlight country-specific factors driving investor decisions rather than region-wide sentiment. 

Nigeria: Inflation Still on a Steady Decline 

Nigeria’s annual inflation rate eased slightly to 15.06% in February 2026 from 15.10% in the previous month. This marks the lowest level since November 2020 and the 11th consecutive month of declining inflation. Eleven straight months of disinflation is significant as it means that the policies aimed at bringing prices down are working. 

However, the pace of disinflation has slowed in the past two months following a small interest rate cut by the Central Bank of Nigeria. When inflation stops falling as quickly after a rate cut, it raises the question of whether further cuts are appropriate or if the central bank should pause to ensure progress continues. The CBN has signaled expectations that inflation will continue to moderate, but market participants will be watching closely to see whether that confidence is warranted. 

Despite the overall slowdown, food inflation rose to 12.12% in February from 8.89% in January. That’s a sharp reversal. Food inflation typically dominates Nigeria’s overall inflation because food represents such a large share of household spending. When food prices accelerate even as headline inflation declines, it suggests the relief people feel in their daily budgets does not match the headline number. 

The National Bureau of Statistics recently introduced a revised methodology for calculating inflation, shifting to a 12-month reference period rather than a single-month comparison. Methodology changes make historical comparisons tricky because you’re not measuring quite the same thing before and after the change. The new approach should provide more stability in the monthly numbers and reduce volatility, but it also means recent data isn’t perfectly comparable to older readings, as you lose context about whether things are getting better. 

Ghana: Aggressive Rate Cut as Inflation Hits Historic Low 

The Bank of Ghana cut its policy rate by 150 basis points to 14% in March 2026, exceeding market expectations and signaling a stronger tilt toward growth support. When a central bank cuts more aggressively than anticipated, it’s making a statement. They’re saying economic growth needs support more urgently than previously communicated, and they believe inflation is under enough control to allow it. 

Ghana’s inflation slowed to 3.3%, a 25-year low. That’s the kind of inflation reading that gives a central bank enormous flexibility. At 3.3%, Ghana has achieved what most central banks target. The challenge now shifts from bringing inflation down to keeping it stable while supporting growth. But there’s a caveat. The report notes upside risks from higher energy prices linked to tensions in the Persian Gulf. If global oil prices stay elevated, Ghana’s inflation won’t stay at 3.3% for long, given the country’s import dependence. 

GDP expanded by 5.8% year-over-year in Q4 2025, driven by services and agriculture, while industry lagged due to weak oil output. Full-year growth reached 6.0%, the fastest since 2019. When an economy is growing at 6% and inflation is at 3%, monetary policy can afford to be accommodative. The risk/reward clearly favors supporting growth over fighting inflation, which is already remarkably low. 

The combination of aggressive rate cuts and strong growth creates an interesting dynamic. If the economy responds to lower rates by accelerating further, Ghana could see investment pick up and consumption strengthen. If energy prices surge and imported inflation returns, the central bank may need to reverse course quickly. For now, they’re betting on the former while acknowledging the latter as a risk. 

Domestic Economy 

Major Updates During the Week 

1. Food inflation jumps despite overall decline 

Nigeria’s food inflation rose to 12.12% in February from 8.89% in January, even as headline inflation continued declining. This divergence matters because food accounts for a large share of what Nigerian households spend. When food prices are rising faster than overall inflation, it means the relief households feel is concentrated in non-food categories while grocery bills keep climbing. 

Food inflation can accelerate for seasonal reasons, supply chain disruptions, or genuine demand pressure. The challenge for policymakers is determining which factor is driving the increase. If it’s seasonal or temporary supply issues, the acceleration should reverse. If it’s demand-driven or reflects sustained cost pressures, it could signal broader inflation risks ahead. The National Bureau of Statistics’ methodology change makes it more difficult to compare this reading with previous months, adding uncertainty about whether the jump is as dramatic as it appears. 

2. Capital market transitions to T+1 settlement 

The Central Securities Clearing System announced that Nigeria’s capital market will transition to a T+1 settlement cycle from May 29, 2026. T+1 means trades settle one business day after execution instead of the current longer timeframe. This change aims to improve post-trade efficiency, reduce settlement risk, and align Nigeria with global best practices. 

Why does settlement speed matter? When trades take longer to settle, money is tied up for that period. Buyers have committed to purchase but don’t yet own the shares. Sellers have agreed to sell but haven’t received payment. This creates a risk because if market conditions change dramatically between trade execution and settlement, one party may struggle to complete the transaction. Faster settlement reduces that window of uncertainty. 

T+1 settlement also improves market liquidity. When investors can access proceeds from sales more quickly, they can redeploy that capital faster. This matters particularly for active traders who need to move between positions efficiently. The shift to T+1 puts Nigeria in line with major markets that have already made similar transitions, reducing friction for international investors familiar with faster settlement cycles.  

Equity Market: Historic Milestone Amid Strong Rally 

The Nigerian equity market crossed the 200,000-point threshold for the first time, closing the week at 201,464.47, up 1.39%. Psychological milestones like round numbers matter in markets because they capture attention and create narratives. Crossing 200,000 points generates headlines and reinforces the perception of momentum, attracting additional buying interest from investors who follow trends. 

The rally was supported by gains across multiple sectors. JOHNHOLT jumped 25.40%, BUACEMENT rose 21%, PREMPAINTS climbed 20.62%, and ZENITHBANK gained 14.64%. Sectoral performance was broadly positive, with banking up 4.31% and industrial surging 9.67%. Oil and Gas declined 4.78%, and consumer goods slipped 0.10%, providing some offset. Year-to-date returns reached 29.27%, maintaining an exceptionally strong start to 2026. 

Market breadth and participation provide important context. When the index is rising, but most individual stocks are falling, it signals concentration risk. When gains are distributed across sectors and individual names, it suggests healthier underlying strength. This week saw broad participation, with the banking and industrial sectors leading, though losses in PRESCO, ETERNA, and ARADEL limited further upside. The fact that different sectors are taking turns leading suggests rotation rather than pure momentum chasing. 

Fixed Income Market: Strong Demands Continue

The Debt Management Office held its Treasury Bills auction on March 18th, with the 364-day paper attracting ₦2.89 trillion in subscriptions against an offer of ₦800 billion. That’s more than 3.5 times oversubscribed. The DMO allotted ₦691.8 billion across the 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day tenors with stop rates at 15.95%, 16.62%, and 16.63%, respectively. 

Strong demand in the secondary Treasury Bills market drove yields on short-tenor instruments lower, with the average yield closing down 2 basis points to 17.70%. This reflects a slight positive tone. When yields fall, it means bond prices are rising. Investors buying existing Treasury Bills in the secondary market are willing to accept slightly lower returns than they were the previous week. That typically signals improving confidence or increased demand for yield. 

The bond market traded negatively with average yields rising 1 basis point week-over-week amid mild selling pressure on short-tenor instruments. The difference between Treasury Bills and bonds matters. Bills are shorter-term (up to one year). Bonds extend further out. When bills rally, but bonds weaken, it suggests investors prefer staying short-term rather than locking in rates for longer periods. That can indicate uncertainty about the future path of inflation or policy rates. 

In the Eurobond market, Nigeria’s sovereign papers witnessed buying interest after consecutive sessions of bearish sentiment. Yields closed lower by 7 basis points week-over-week to 7.18%. When Eurobonds rally after an extended selloff, it suggests either bargain hunting by investors who think yields got too high or improving sentiment about Nigeria’s credit profile. Given the broader context of oil price strength and continued inflation moderation, both factors are likely to have contributed. 

The Bottom Line

If you take one thing away from this week, let it be this: the market is no longer moving on sentiment alone. Physical supply shocks in oil and real demand in equities are driving prices.

The NGX rally feels different this time. It’s broad-based, supported by banks and industrials, and showing signs of maturity. The T-bills auction showed there’s still plenty of liquidity chasing yield.

But the risks are real. Food inflation is ticking up. Oil prices are volatile. And global central banks are still navigating a tricky path.

Stay diversified. Stay disciplined.