Global Economy

US: The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized 3.3% in Q2 2025, rebounding sharply from a 0.5% contraction in Q1 and slightly above the initial 3% estimate. The upward revision reflected stronger investment (5.7% vs 1.9% previously) and consumer spending (1.6% vs 1.4%), partly offset by weaker government spending (-0.2% vs 0.4%) and higher imports (-29.8% vs -30.3%). Growth was primarily supported by a sharp drop in imports, which are a subtraction from GDP, alongside firmer household consumption. However, gains were tempered by slower investment growth (5.7% vs 10.3% in Q1) and a decline in exports (-1.3% vs 0.4%).

Sub-Saharan African Economies

China: China’s Caixin General Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.5 in July 2025 from 50.4 in June, missing forecasts of 50.2 and signaling the second contraction in three months. The downturn was led by a sharper drop in new export orders amid global trade uncertainty, while overall output also fell for only the second time since October 2023 as new orders growth slowed. Employment declined, though purchasing activity picked up after two months of declines. Supplier performance continued to worsen due to delays and shortages. On prices, input costs rose for the first time in five months on higher raw material prices, but selling prices fell under intensified competition. Looking ahead, sentiment improved on expectations of stronger economic conditions and promotional boosts to sales, though optimism remained below the long-term average.

Egypt: The Central Bank of Egypt cut its overnight deposit rate by 200 basis points to 22% on their August 2025 meeting, the third reduction of the year, and aligned with market expectations. The central bank noted that inflation cooled in recent data and the Egyptian pound steadied in comparison to more volatile periods since the start of the pandemic, allowing policy to be loosened to align with the government’s expansionary economic policy. The latest data showed that inflation slowed to 13.9% in July, well below the recent peak of 38% in September of 2023.

Kenya: Kenya’s inflation rate accelerated to 4.5% in August 2025, the steepest since June 2024, from 4.1% in the month before. The main upward pressure came from prices of food & non-alcoholic beverages (8.3% vs 6.8% in July), of which staple food items such as corn and vegetables. Other key contributors were transportation (4.4% vs 4.1%) and housing & utilities (0.8% vs 1.3%). On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.3% in August, after a 0.1% increase in the prior month.

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

  • The NEC approved the Renewed Hope Development Plan 2026–2030 after the previous plan missed key targets. The new plan, due in December, is expected to adopt more realistic economic assumptions.
  • The CBN issued a circular mandating payment providers to adopt ISO 20022 and geo-tag POS terminals, with full compliance required by October 31, 2025. The move aims to boost transparency.
  • Nigeria and Brazil signed five MoUs during President Tinubu’s visit, covering air services, space technology, climate monitoring, AI, trade, and diplomatic cooperation.

Nigerian equity market: NGX extends weekly losing streak despite modest August gain

The Nigerian stock market closed lower for the third straight week, dragged by broad declines across sectors, particularly banking. Despite the weekly downturn, the market still managed to post a modest 0.31% gain for August 2025. The NGX All-Share Index fell 0.50% to 140,295.49 points, while market capitalization dropped 0.49% week-on-week to ₦88.77 trillion. Decliners outnumbered gainers, with 57 equities losing value, led by UACN, VFDGROUP, and GUINNESS, while 32 stocks advanced, including BERGER, SFSREIT, and JBERGER. Sectoral performance was uniformly weak, with the banking sector emerging as the biggest laggard, down 1.21% WoW.

Nigerian fixed-income market: Negative sentiment prevails as investors gauge interest rate trajectory

Trading remained bearish, reflecting the sentiment set at the recent primary market treasury bill and bond auctions. At the August bond auction, the DMO sold ₦136billion across two instruments, with the stop rate on the new 2030s closing at 17.95%, while the 2032s edged higher by 0.05% to 18.00%. In the aftermath, the secondary treasury bills market closed weaker on a week-on-week (WoW) basis, with average yields up 45bps to 18.75%. Similarly, the bond market traded bearish, as yields climbed 40bps WoW to 17.14%. In contrast, the Eurobond market ended the week positively, with yields declining by 16bps WoW to 7.96%. Looking ahead, we expect fixed-income instruments to trade within a narrow range in the next trading week.