Global Economy

US: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated last week that the central bank remains on course to cut short term interest rates again this year. Speaking at an event on Tuesday, Powell reiterated remarks he made after the Fed’s mid September meeting, noting that the downside risks to employment have shifted the balance of risks in the economy. This has led investors to believe that the central bank is likely to continue easing borrowing costs at its next meeting, even though inflation remains above target. Several other Fed officials, including Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran, also expressed support for additional rate cuts this year. On Wednesday, the Fed released its Beige Book, a report published eight times a year in which each of the twelve regional banks compiles information on economic conditions in its district. The report showed that overall economic activity was little changed since the previous edition, with a mixed picture across districts as employment levels held steady and wages increased, while consumer spending inched down, prices rose further, and more employers reported reducing staff through layoffs and attrition.

Sub-Saharan African Economies

U.K: Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1% in August after contracting by the same margin in July. Over the three months to August, the UK economy expanded by 0.3% on a sequential basis. Separate data showed that seasonally adjusted industrial and manufacturing output rebounded in August following declines in the previous month. The labor market showed signs of loosening slightly, as the unemployment rate edged up to 4.8% from 4.7%. However, the statistics office noted that the decline in hiring may be stabilizing. The number of payrolled employees increased by 10,000 between July and August before falling by the same amount in September, based on preliminary tax data. Meanwhile, wage growth excluding bonuses eased marginally to 4.7% year on year in the three months to August, compared with 4.8% in the preceding period.

Nigeria: Nigeria’s annual inflation rate eased for the sixth month to 18.02% in September 2025, marking the softest reading since May 2022. Rising crude production, along with lower prices of key staples at the start of the harvest season, helped keep the naira stable. Also, additional contribution came from base effects linked to the base year change early this year. Food inflation, the largest component of the inflation basket, decelerated to a five-year low of 16.87% in September, from 21.87% in August. The core inflation rate, which strips out the volatile prices of agricultural produce and energy, slowed to 19.53%, down from 20.3% in July.

Egypt: S&P Global upgraded Egypt’s credit rating to ‘B’, citing economic reforms that have spurred a strong rebound in GDP growth. Fitch Ratings maintained Egypt’s ‘B’ rating with a stable outlook, emphasizing the country’s robust growth prospects and sustained backing from international partners. Fitch last upgraded Egypt in November 2024, supported by higher foreign investment and tighter monetary policy. S&P’s latest upgrade marks the first since Egypt began receiving financial aid in March 2024, noting the country’s rising strategic importance amid the Gaza conflict and continued GCC support. Moody’s currently rates Egypt at ‘Caa1’ with a positive outlook.

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

  • Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 18.02% in September 2025 from 20.12% in August and 32.70% a year earlier, its lowest since June 2022, supported by improved food supply, stable FX and energy prices.
  • The IMF has raised Nigeria’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.9% from 3.4%, citing stronger reform momentum and economic stability, while global growth is projected at 3.2%; however, the Fund cautioned that fiscal and welfare reforms still lag behind monetary and FX policy gains.
  • Nigeria’s total debt rose to ₦152.40 trillion in Q2 2025 from ₦149.39 trillion in Q1.

Nigerian equity market: NGX remains on bullish path as industrial goods drive performance

This week, the Nigerian equities market maintained its bullish momentum, marking a sixth consecutive weekly gain amid sustained positive investor sentiment. The NGX All-Share Index rose by 1.35% to close at 148,977.64 points, while market capitalization climbed 1.36% to ₦94.56 trillion, bringing the year-to-date return to 44.74%. Market activity was marked by structural adjustments, including the closure of the ASEM Board, Juli Plc’s migration to the Growth Board, and the suspension of Smart Products Nigeria Plc ahead of its delisting. Fifty-two equities gained, led by Transpower, SFS REIT, and STANBIC IBTC, while forty-one stocks declined, including UACN and UCAP. Sectorally, four of five major indices closed positive, with Industrial Goods leading at +2.79% week-on-week, while the Banking sector declined slightly by 0.13%.

Nigerian fixed-income market: Ample liquidity sustains market gains despite resistance

During the week, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that headline inflation fell by over 200bps to 18.02% in September 2025, largely driven by easing food prices. Although this was expected to spur demand in the fixed income market, activity remained range-bound. In the Treasury bills market, buying interest in short- and mid-tenor instruments pushed the average yield down by 6bps to 17.39%. A similar trend was observed in the bond market, where the average yield edged lower by 1bp to 15.97% week-on-week, while Nigeria’s Eurobond yields declined by 7bps to 8.00%. At the next trading week, we expect similar sentiment in the fixed-income market.