Welcome to another edition of Market Watch, your weekly guide to understanding the trends shaping our economy and financial markets. Whether you are navigating your business plans or mapping out your personal savings, staying informed is your best tool for building a secure future.
Here is a clear breakdown of what happened across global, regional, and local markets for the week ending October 23, 2026.
Global Economy
US:Technology Stocks Fall as Investors Question AI Spending
US stock markets ended the week on mixed notes as investors became more cautious about the amount of money technology companies are spending on artificial intelligence (AI). Although demand for AI services and data centres remained encouraging, investors were increasingly concerned about how companies would finance these investments and how quickly they would earn back the money spent.
The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks smaller US companies, led the major indexes with a 2.00% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose by 0.41%. However, the Nasdaq Composite, which has a large concentration of technology companies, fell by 0.71%, while the S&P 500 declined by 0.47%. Value stocks, which are shares of companies that appear relatively affordable compared with their financial performance, also performed better than growth stocks for the third consecutive week.
Technology shares initially recovered from the previous week’s losses as investors anticipated earnings reports from major technology companies and remained optimistic about demand for data centres. However, this recovery faded on Thursday as concerns about the cost and financing of AI investments returned. The mixed performance suggests that investors are becoming more selective about which companies they believe can turn the growing demand for AI into sustainable profits.
Oil prices also rose towards the end of the week as reports of renewed tensions in the Middle East overshadowed earlier optimism about diplomatic discussions between the US and Iran. Higher oil prices can increase fuel and transport costs, putting additional pressure on businesses and consumers. For investors, these developments could continue to influence energy prices, company profits and market performance in the coming weeks.
Europe: Political Unrest and Rising Oil Prices Weigh on Stocks
European stock markets ended the week lower as political tensions, higher oil prices and persistent inflation weakened investor confidence. The STOXX Europe 600 Index, which tracks companies across the region, fell by 1.39%. Germany’s DAX declined by 1.72%, France’s CAC 40 dropped by 2.19%, Italy’s FTSE MIB lost 2.60%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 fell by 1.76%.
Inflation remained a concern across the region, reaching 4.9% in Spain and 3.1% in France. Inflation measures how quickly the prices of goods and services rise, so persistently high inflation can reduce how much households can afford and make it more difficult for central banks to lower interest rates. Eurozone industrial production also contracted for the third consecutive month, pointing to continued weakness in manufacturing activity.
France faced additional pressure as cost-of-living protests escalated into widespread riots and looting in major cities. The unrest contributed to a sell-off in French shares and government bonds. The yield on France’s 10-year government bonds rose above 5%, widening the difference between French and German government borrowing costs to its highest level since 2012.
Government bond yields generally rise when investors demand better returns to compensate for perceived risks or when bond prices fall. In France’s case, the political unrest added to concerns about the country’s financial outlook. The combination of higher borrowing costs, expensive energy and weak industrial activity could continue to weigh on European markets.
UK: Unemployment Falls, but Inflation Raises Interest Rate Concerns
The UK’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.7% in August, from 4.9% in July. This suggests that the labour market performed better than expected during the period.
However, inflation moved in the opposite direction. Annual inflation rose to 3.5% in September, its highest level since October 2025. Higher motor fuel prices, which increased transport costs, contributed significantly to the rise.
The combination of lower unemployment and higher inflation has implications for interest rates. When more people are employed and prices continue to rise, the Bank of England may have less room to reduce borrowing costs. As a result, expectations grew that the bank could raise interest rates at its November 5 meeting.
Higher interest rates can make loans and mortgages more expensive for households and businesses, while potentially improving the returns available on some savings products. Investors will therefore be watching upcoming economic data and central bank decisions for signs of how borrowing costs may change.
Sub-Saharan African Economies
The prices of several African Eurobonds fell, including those issued by Kenya, Angola, Gabon, Ghana and Senegal, while Nigerian bonds recorded mixed movements.
Ghana: Government Plans $10 Billion Growth Programme
Ghana is preparing a four-year economic growth programme worth $10 billion, according to reports. Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson is expected to announce the plan before the end of the year, with the government focusing on creating jobs and strengthening the country’s economic recovery.
President John Mahama said the programme would cover nine sectors, including pharmaceuticals and tourism. Investment in these areas could support business activity, create employment opportunities and help broaden the sources of economic growth.
The success of the programme will depend on how the government finances and implements its plans. Investors will be watching to see whether the proposed spending translates into stronger economic activity without placing additional pressure on the country’s finances.
Angola: Rising Fuel Subsidies Put Pressure on Government Finances
Angola’s fuel subsidy bill is projected to more than double in 2026, reaching between 3.7 trillion and 3.8 trillion kwanza, equivalent to approximately $4.2 billion. This is significantly higher than the 1.7 trillion kwanza originally budgeted for the year.
Secretary of State for Finance and the Treasury Ottoniel dos Santos attributed the increase to higher international energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Angola imports more than 80% of its refined fuel, meaning it remains exposed to changes in global fuel prices despite being a major crude oil exporter.
When international fuel prices rise, the government may have to spend more to maintain subsidies and prevent the full increase from reaching consumers. This leaves less room in the budget for other public needs and can make government finances more difficult to manage.
Senegal: Disagreement Over Government Spending Puts Debt Plans at Risk
Senegal’s international bonds fell sharply after Assembly Speaker Ousmane Sonko threatened to block revised government budgets for 2026 and 2027. His PASTEF party holds a large majority in the National Assembly, making the disagreement a significant political challenge for the government.
The dispute centres on proposed cuts to fuel subsidies and other government spending, as well as the government’s plan for addressing its debt under a G20 debt-treatment arrangement. Fuel subsidies help keep the price consumers pay for fuel below what it might otherwise cost, but they can place considerable pressure on government finances.
The disagreement has raised concerns that Senegal’s plans to restructure its debt could face delays. The dispute could also delay the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme supporting the debt overhaul. When investors become uncertain about whether a government can carry out its financial plans, they may sell its bonds or demand higher returns to compensate for the additional risk.
Domestic Economy
Major Updates During the Week
Before looking at the trading floors, here is a quick look at where our core economic indicators stand:
1. Government Looks to Private Investors to Fund Economic Growth
Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele said the government intends to rely more on private investment, both within Nigeria and from abroad, to finance the next phase of economic growth instead of depending increasingly on government borrowing.
Private capital refers to money invested by individuals, businesses and investment firms rather than money raised directly through government borrowing. Such investment can help fund businesses, infrastructure and other economic activities, potentially creating jobs and supporting production.
The minister also ruled out bringing back the petrol subsidy, describing it as part of an unsustainable approach from the past. Subsidy payments can place a heavy burden on public finances, so keeping them out of the budget could give the government more room to direct funds towards other priorities.
However, attracting private investment will depend partly on whether investors have confidence in the country’s policies, economic outlook and business environment. The government’s ability to turn this approach into actual investment and stronger economic activity will be worth watching.
2. Nigeria Confirms First Ebola Case in Current Outbreak
Nigeria confirmed its first Ebola case in the current outbreak on October 20. The patient was a woman who had travelled from Uganda to Abuja and was infected with the Bundibugyo strain of the virus.
The report states that there is no approved vaccine or treatment for this strain. The development places public health authorities on alert, as preventing further infections and identifying potential contacts are important parts of containing an outbreak.
Public health developments can also affect economic activity if they lead to disruptions in travel, trade or business operations. The extent of any wider economic effect will depend on how the situation develops and how effectively the outbreak is contained. The report did not provide further details on the case or identify any resulting economic restrictions.
Equity Market: Nigerian Stocks Record Fourth Consecutive Weekly Decline
The Nigerian stock market ended the week lower for the fourth consecutive week, as losses in insurance, oil and gas, and banking shares outweighed gains in industrial goods companies.
The NGX All-Share Index, which tracks the overall performance of listed Nigerian shares, fell by 0.13% to close at 247,222.27 points. The total market value of listed shares stood at ₦160.519 trillion, while the market’s return for the year remained positive at 58.87%.
More stocks lost value than gained, with 20 gainers and 55 losers. ABC Transport Services led the gainers at 20.66%, followed by AVACAP (+17.74%) and Caverton (+17.07%). Fidelity Bank rose by 14.01%, while Multitrex gained 10.00%.
UPDCREIT led the losers, falling by 17.26%, followed by Omatek (-12.50%) and University Press (-12.12%). Across sectors, industrial goods gained 1.95%, while insurance fell by 2.79%, oil and gas by 2.55%, banking by 0.67%, and consumer goods by 0.55%.
Fixed Income Market: Treasury Bill Yields Rise as Government Bond Yields Remain Stable
Nigeria’s fixed income market recorded mixed movements during the week. Average Treasury bill yields rose by 0.11 percentage points to 17.99%, while government bond yields edged up slightly from 16.34% to 16.35%.
Long-term Treasury bill yields increased from 18.46% to 18.66%, short-term yields rose from 17.47% to 17.52%, and medium-term yields remained at 17.84%. For government bonds, short-term yields dipped to 16.32%, medium-term yields held at 16.83%, and long-term yields rose to 15.44%.
At the bond auction, the government allotted ₦1.21 trillion out of ₦1.75 trillion offered. The 2036 bond attracted the largest allotment at ₦781.30 billion, compared with ₦78.36 billion for the 2034 bond and ₦350.72 billion for the 2038 bond.
Rising Treasury bill yields may offer investors better returns, while bond yields remained largely stable. Investors should compare available returns and maturity dates to choose options that suit their financial goals.
What This Means for Your Money
The week highlighted three developments worth paying attention to. Global markets remain sensitive to the cost of AI investments, rising oil prices and political uncertainty. Across Africa, falling Eurobond prices showed that investors are still assessing the risks surrounding government debt, while Nigeria’s latest economic updates pointed to a greater focus on private investment and managing public finances.
For Nigerian investors, the fourth consecutive weekly decline in the stock market is a reminder that share prices can fall even after a strong run earlier in the year. Rather than reacting to every market movement, it is worth reviewing the companies in your portfolio, checking whether their financial performance still supports your investment decision and considering whether your holdings are spread across different sectors.
The fixed income market also deserves attention. Average Treasury bill yields rose to 17.99%, while average government bond yields remained almost unchanged at 16.35%. These figures provide a useful starting point for comparing available investments, although the return you receive will depend on the specific security, purchase price, holding period and applicable charges. Before investing, consider when you will need the money and whether the investment’s maturity matches your plans.
Finally, the government’s intention to rely more on private capital could create opportunities if it leads to stronger business activity and productive investment. However, investors should look for evidence of actual progress rather than make decisions based on policy announcements alone.
A balanced approach remains useful in changing market conditions. Shares may offer opportunities for long-term growth, while Treasury bills and government bonds can provide planned returns over specific periods. Choosing the right mix depends on your goals, how much risk you can comfortably take and when you need access to your money.
