Global Economy

US: U.S. annual inflation ticked up to 2.4% in May 2025 from 2.3% in April, marking the first increase in four months  though it remained below market expectations of 2.5%. The uptick was driven by higher prices for food (2.9% vs 2.8%), transportation services (2.8% vs 2.5%), used cars and trucks (1.8% vs 1.5%), and new vehicles (0.4% vs 0.3%). However, shelter inflation eased slightly to 3.9% from 4.0%. Energy prices continued to decline, down 3.5% overall, with notable drops in gasoline (-12%) and fuel oil (-8.6%), while natural gas prices stayed elevated at 15.3%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose just 0.1%, missing expectations and down from 0.2% in April. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, held steady at 2.8% year-on-year, its lowest level since 2021 and rose only 0.1% month-on-month, also below expectations. The data points to lingering disinflationary momentum, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy further.

Sub-Saharan African Economies

Oil: Israel’s strike on Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities on June 13, 2025, rattled global financial markets, igniting fears of a prolonged regional conflict that could threaten oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz (a chokepoint for about 20% of the world’s crude). Brent crude surged over 7% to $74.23 per barrel, its highest in nearly five months, with futures up as much as 13% amid speculation that the attack might escalate. Safe-haven assets rallied as investors fled risk: gold and U.S. Treasuries gained, while global equities sold off. Asian and European stocks opened lower, with Germany’s DAX leading the losses. In the U.S., the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell roughly 1% at the open. Energy and defense stocks, including Rheinmetall and BAE, rose 2–3%, while travel and leisure shares lagged. With Israel’s Netanyahu vowing continued operations and Iran’s Khamenei warning of “harsh punishment,” the market is bracing for further volatility and geopolitical risk.

Angola: Angola’s annual inflation rate continued to ease, falling to 20.74% in May 2025, its lowest level since December 2023, down from 22.32% in April. The disinflationary trend has been supported by a stabilizing kwanza, elevated interest rates, and improved availability of consumer goods, which have helped contain imported inflation. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 1.17% in May, the slowest pace since May 2023, compared to a 1.34% increase in April. Price growth moderated across most CPI categories, including alcoholic beverages & tobacco (1.28% vs 1.94%), clothing & footwear (1.24% vs 1.80%), hotels, cafes & restaurants (0.81% vs 1.65%), recreation & culture (0.84% vs 1.20%), and food & non-alcoholic beverages (1.25% vs 1.43%).

Ghana: Ghana’s economy expanded by 5.3% y/y in Q1 2025, accelerating from 3.6% in the previous quarter. The industrial sector recorded a notable recovery, growing 3.4% (vs. 0.2% in Q4 2024), driven by a 5.6% rise in gold production. Agriculture, which accounts for roughly 40% of employment, also strengthened posting 6.6% growth compared to 2.9% in the prior period thanks to a rebound in cocoa output after six consecutive quarters of contraction. Meanwhile, the services sector remained resilient, rising 5.9%, slightly below the 6.3% recorded in Q4.

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

  • Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of ₦5.17trn in Q1 2025 as exports rose to ₦20.60trn, driven by oil and non-oil earnings, while imports declined to ₦15.43trn, amid global trade disruptions, a weaker naira, and increased local production.
  • The World Bank kept Nigeria’s 2025 growth forecast at 3.6%, supported by reforms and a strong services sector, despite a projected global slowdown to 2.3%.
  • NNPC reported N5.89trn in revenue and N748bn in post-tax earnings for April 2025, with crude production rising to 1.61mbpd and gas output hitting 7,354mmscf/d, as it advanced key pipeline and refinery projects ahead of Q4 targets.

Nigerian equity market: Investor optimism sustains post-holidays as NGX hits new high

The Nigerian equities market sustained a positive performance following the Eid-el Kabir and Democracy Day holidays, maintaining its all-time high during the week. The NGX All-Share Index rose by 0.71% to close at 115,429.54 points, up from the prior week’s 114,616.75 points. Market capitalisation also advanced to ₦72.79 trillion from ₦72.28 trillion. Fifty-five equities recorded gains, including BUAFOODS (+4.32%), BUACEMENT (+7.53%), OANDO (+21.37%), and MTNN (+1.82%). These outweighed the losses in thirty-nine equities, such as ARADEL (-9.09%), ZENITHBANK (-1.08%), and FIRSTHOLDCO (-4.08%). Sector-wise, Consumer Goods led the gainers with a 1.32% WoW rise, while Oil and Gas declined by 1.22%.

Nigerian fixed-income market: Positive market liquidity fuels positive sentiment this week

This week, the fixed income market traded largely positive, supported by robust system liquidity, which ranged between ₦700 billion and ₦880 billion long. Consequently, demand increased, especially with only two trading sessions in the week. The treasury bills market closed positive as average market yield declined by 22bps WoW to 20.64%, driven by interest at the longer end of the curve. The bond market mirrored this sentiment, albeit at a moderate pace, with average yield dipping by just 1 bp to 18.84%. In the Eurobond space, Nigeria’s sovereigns ended the week flat with slight curve movements. Looking ahead, we expect continued positive sentiment across both the domestic fixed income and Eurobond markets, supported by a rebound in oil prices.