Global Economy

U.S.A: U.S. consumer prices fell by 0.1% in March, the first monthly decline since May 2020, largely due to lower gasoline prices (-6.3%), used vehicles, airline fares, and hotel rates, reflecting weakening demand amid growing recession fears and trade tensions. Headline inflation slowed to 2.4%y/y in March from 2.8% in February. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose just 0.1%m/m—its smallest increase since June 2024—bringing the annual core rate down to 2.8% from 3.1%. Despite the soft print, economists expect inflation to pick up in the coming months due to President Trump’s aggressive tariff hikes, including a 125% duty on Chinese goods. Markets are now pricing in as much as 100 basis points in Fed rate cuts this year, with the first move likely in June, as the central bank balances slowing growth against inflation risks. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, is estimated to have risen just 0.1% in March, bringing its annual rate to 2.6%. While the labor market remains steady, rising import costs could lead to layoffs, setting up a scenario where goods inflation returns, partly offset by easing services inflation.

Sub-Saharan African Economies

UK: The UK economy grew by 0.5% in February—its fastest pace in 11 months—beating expectations and reversing a flat January. Year-on-year GDP was up 1.4%, surprising economists and prompting a pullback in bets on Bank of England rate cuts. Growth was driven by a 2.2% jump in manufacturing, with strength in electronics, pharma, and auto production, alongside a 0.3% rise in services and a rebound in construction. However, concerns loom as U.S. tariffs—announced by President Trump—are expected to weigh on British exports, with goods to the U.S. set to face at least a 10% cost increase. While British exports to the U.S. rose £0.5bn in February, likely due to firms rushing shipments ahead of the tariffs, economists warn the positive momentum may be short-lived. UK’s trade deficit narrowed sharply to its lowest since mid-2021, but the longer-term outlook remains uncertain amid global trade tensions, rising domestic employment costs, and structural headwinds.

Angola: Angola’s annual inflation rate eased for the eighth consecutive month to 23.85% in March 2025 — its lowest since January 2024 — supported by the relative stability of the kwanza. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 1.38%, down from 1.59% in February, reflecting a moderation in price increases for food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.39% vs 1.75%), hotels and restaurants (1.75% vs 2.01%), clothing and footwear (1.62% vs 1.95%), and miscellaneous goods and services (1.56% vs 1.67%)..

Egypt: Egypt’s annual urban inflation rate rose to 13.6% in March 2025, up from 12.8% in February and surpassing expectations of 12.6%. This marked the first acceleration in five months, driven by a sharp rebound in food inflation (6.6% vs 3.7%). Price increases also quickened for housing and utilities (13.0% vs 12.9%) and clothing and footwear (23.0% vs 22.7%). Meanwhile, inflation moderated across transport (33.9% vs 34.3%), furnishings (15.6% vs 16.6%), and several service-related categories. On a monthly basis, CPI climbed 1.6% — the steepest rise in six months — compared to a 1.4% increase in February.

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

  • Nigeria’s total public debt rose to ₦144.67trn ($94.23bn) in 2024, with rising domestic and external borrowings, high debt service costs consuming 37.2% of the budget, and growing concerns over debt sustainability.
  • Nigeria’s Balance of Payments swung to a $6.83bn surplus in 2024 from a $3.34bn deficit in 2023, driven by macroeconomic reforms, stronger trade and investment flows.
  • Nigeria’s Composite PMI rose to 52.3 in March 2025, signalling strong Q1 private sector growth driven by FX stability, easing inflation, and higher demand, with all key sectors expanding—though trade orders remained weak amid global tensions.

Nigerian equity market: Bears dominate as selloffs weigh on market

The Nigerian equities market closed the week in the red as bearish sentiment persisted, driven by broad-based profit-taking and sectoral pullbacks. Despite intermittent bargain hunting, especially in the banking and oil & gas sectors, both ended the week negative. The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) declined by 0.90% WoW to settle at 104,563.34 points. Fifty-six equities posted losses compared to just twenty-seven gainers. Heavyweights like MTNN (-4.08%), ACCESSCORP (-9.71%), and NB (-5.88%) dragged the market, offsetting gains in VFD (+53.86%) and TOTALENERGIES (+9.61%). All five key sectors closed lower, with the Insurance sector leading the decline at -4.57% WoW.

Nigerian fixed-income market: Bearish sentiment prevails in the fixed-income market.

At this week’s NTB auction, the DMO adopted a different approach, allotting approximately ₦424.5 billion despite total subscription reaching ₦1.13 trillion. While the stop rate for the 364-day paper was unchanged, the 90-day and 180-day maturities recorded an increase of 50 basis points each. In the secondary market, bearish sentiment persisted, with the average yield on treasury bills climbing by 63 basis points week-on-week. This trend was also evident in the bond market, where mid-tenor instruments drove the average yield higher by 17 basis points to 18.87%. In the Eurobond segment, global economic developments triggered further bearish sentiment, pushing average yields up by 77 basis points week-on-week to 11.71%. We anticipate a potential mild retracement in the coming trading week.