Global Economy

US: The US unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% in June 2025 from 4.2% in May, defying expectations of a rise and maintaining a year-long trend of labor market stability within the 4.0%–4.2% range. The number of unemployed persons declined by 222,000 to 7.015 million, while employment rose by 93,000 to 163.366 million. However, the overall labor force shrank by 130,000, bringing the labor force participation rate down to 62.3%, its lowest level since December 2022. The employment-population ratio held steady at 59.7%, continuing to reflect structural softness in the job market. Notably, the broader U-6 unemployment rate, which accounts for underemployment and discouraged workers, also eased slightly to 7.7% from 7.8%. Despite a shrinking labor force, the data suggest a resilient but cautious labor market amid broader economic uncertainty.

Sub-Saharan African Economies

UK: The S&P Global UK Services PMI was revised up to 52.8 in June 2025 from a preliminary 51.3, marking the strongest expansion since August 2024 and improving on May’s 50.9. The rise was driven by renewed growth in new orders, particularly from domestic markets, with order books seeing their fastest increase since November 2024. However, employment in the sector continued to fall sharply, hindered by rising wage costs and limited capacity pressures. Backlogs of work declined for a 13th consecutive month—marking the longest sustained drop in over 15 years. Input cost inflation eased to its lowest level in 2025, leading to the weakest increase in output charges in nearly four-and-a-half years. Despite strong activity, business confidence dipped slightly from May levels.

Egypt: Egypt’s economy expanded by 4.77% in the third quarter of its FY 2024/25, marking the fastest growth in three years, after a 2.2% rise in the same quarter a year ago, preliminary estimates showed. The manufacturing sector was a major driver, bouncing back with 16.3% growth after contracting 3.9% in the previous year’s quarter. Conversely, oil and natural gas extraction contracted further, shrinking by 10.38%. Additionally, activity in the Suez Canal fell by 23.1%, following a 51.6% drop the prior year.

Ghana: Ghana’s annual consumer inflation eased for the 6th month in a row, hitting 13.7% in June 2025, the lowest level since December 2021, mainly due to the cedi’s ongoing strength. Food inflation moderated further to 16.3% from 22.8% in May, while non-food price growth also cooled down to 11.4% from 14.4% the month before.

Kenya: Kenya’s economy advanced by 4.9% in Q1 2025, after a 5.1% expansion in Q4 2024. Growth was broad-based, with particularly strong performance in the key agricultural sector, where output rose by 6.0% thanks to favorable weather conditions. Alongside this, government initiatives like farm input subsidies and the Hustler Fund’s affordable loans further enhanced productivity across the sector. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the GDP rose by 0.8% in Q1, the least in a year, following a downwardly revised 1.7% rise in Q4 2024.

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

  • Nigeria’s total debt rose to ₦149.39trn in Q1 2025, driven by increased domestic and external borrowings, as the IMF urges fiscal reforms and warns of a potential 4.7% deficit, amid revenue shortfalls and rising reliance on debt markets.
  • Nigeria posted a current account surplus of $3.73bn in Q1 2025, supported by a 30% rise in non-oil exports and higher gas exports, though risks from global instability and US remittance policies could weigh on trade performance going forward.
  • Nigeria’s headline PMI eased to 51.6 in June 2025 from 52.7 in May, reflecting softer new orders and output, though private sector activity remains resilient.

Nigerian equity market: NGX sustains bullish momentum for the sixth consecutive week

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) maintained its bullish trajectory for the sixth straight week, with the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) closing above the 120,000-point mark. This upward momentum was largely driven by increased activity across the insurance, consumer goods, oil and gas, and banking sectors. A total of seventy-eight equities advanced, led by BUAFOODS (+2.23%), TRANSCORP (+2.28%), INTBREW (+10.43%), NB (+5.32%), and WAPCO (+2.89%).  Sectoral performance was broadly positive, as four of the five major sector indices closed in the green, led by the Insurance sector, which gained 5.86% week-on-week. Overall, the NGX ASI advanced by 0.83% to close at 120,989.66 points, while market capitalization rose by 0.50% to ₦76.33 trillion reflecting the impact of NOTORE’s delisting.

Nigerian fixed-income market: Positive market liquidity drives net bullish sentiment

Activity in the fixed income market was largely positive this week, supported by sustained system liquidity. This drove moderate buying interest in mid-tenor treasury bills, resulting in a 42 basis point decline in the average yield to 19.93%. The bond market also reflected similar sentiment, with the average yield falling by 84 basis points to 17.54%, as improved investor confidence in Nigeria’s economic outlook spurred demand for long-dated FGN bonds. In the Eurobond space, Nigeria’s sovereign bonds recorded modest gains across the curve, with yields declining by an average of 10 basis points. We anticipate a continuation of this sentiment in the coming week, supported by robust market liquidity.