Global Economy

US: U.S. initial jobless claims fell sharply by 16,000 to 199,000 in the week ended December 27, well below expectations of 220,000, despite the typically volatile holiday period. This marked the lowest level since January, excluding the seasonally distorted Thanksgiving week. Continuing claims also edged lower to 1.89 million in the week ended December 20 from a revised 1.91 million previously, signaling ongoing labor market resilience. Meanwhile, claims filed by federal employees ticked up slightly to 812 from 805 amid continued scrutiny related to the federal government shutdown.

Sub-Saharan African Economies

China: The Rating Dog China General Manufacturing PMI rose unexpectedly to 50.1 in December 2025 from 49.9 in November, surpassing market expectations of 49.8 and signalling a marginal return to expansion in factory activity. The improvement was driven by stronger domestic new orders, reflecting government efforts to stimulate local demand, even as new export sales continued to soften. Purchasing activity remained subdued as firms reported adequate inventories, while employment declined for a second straight month amid cost pressures and workforce adjustments. Input cost inflation picked up to a three-month high on higher raw material prices, but selling prices continued to fall as manufacturers sought to support demand. Overall business sentiment weakened, highlighting persistent concerns about the broader growth outlook.

Kenya: Inflation rate remained unchanged at 4.5% in December 2025, close to its highest level since mid-2024 but still below the central bank’s 5% target midpoint for the 19th consecutive month. Food and non-alcoholic beverages continued to exert the strongest upward pressure, driven by sharp increases in vegetable prices and higher costs for key staples, including maize products and sugar. Beyond food, transportation inflation edged higher, reflecting fuel-related pressures and seasonal demand, while housing and utilities recorded softer price growth but remained relevant to overall inflation dynamics. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation accelerated to 0.6%, up from 0.2% in November, on the back of higher transport fares during the festive period, particularly for road transport and international flights.

Nigeria: The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI eased marginally to 53.5 in December 2025 from 53.6 in November, still indicating a solid expansion in private-sector activity. Growth in new orders, output, and purchasing activity reflected resilient customer demand, while employment increased at a modest pace. Inflationary pressures edged up slightly but remained near recent lows. Notably, business confidence strengthened to a six-month high, underpinned by planned investments in expansion, new branch openings, and increased export activity.

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

  • FirstBank, the commercial banking arm of First Hold Co Plc, has met the ₦500 billion minimum capital base required by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for an international banking license.
  • MA’AM Energy Limited takes control of 77% of Geregu Power Plc following a restructuring of the ownership of its majority shareholder
  • Foreign direct investment rebounded to $720mn in Q3’25, up from $90mn in Q2’25 and $570mn in Q3’24.

Nigerian equity market: Strong start to 2026 as equities sustain momentum

The Nigerian equities market began 2026 on a positive footing, extending its bullish run to a fifth consecutive week after delivering a strong full-year return of 51.19% in 2025, well above 2024 levels. The NGX All-Share Index advanced 1.92% for the week to close at 156,492.36 points, supported by broad-based buying interest across the market. Market capitalisation rose by 2.09% week-on-week to ₦99.94 trillion, edging closer to the ₦100 trillion milestone. Market breadth was firmly positive, with 73 stocks recording gains, led by strong rallies in EUNISELL, ALEX, HONYFLOUR, FIDSON and IKEJAHOTEL. Sectoral performance was uniformly positive, with all major indices closing higher, as the Insurance sector led gains with a 5.93% weekly increase.

Nigerian fixed-income market: Fixed-income yields close the year on a positive note

In the final trading week of the year, the Nigerian fixed-income market recorded positive sentiment, with treasury bill yields declining by 16 basis points week-on-week to an average of 17.63%. This was driven by strong buying interest across the curve, particularly at the long end. A similar trend was observed in the bond market, where the average yield closed lower at 16.55%, largely reflecting demand for short-tenor instruments. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s Eurobonds ended the week marginally positive, with average yields settling at 7.03%. Overall, the fixed-income market closed the year on a positive note. Looking ahead to the next trading week, we expect buying interest to persist, supported by robust system liquidity and expectations around yield direction heading into 2026.