Global Economy

US: The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed several key economic reports, though the Bureau of Labor Statistics released September inflation data on October 24 to enable the Social Security Administration to compute its annual cost-of-living adjustment. Headline inflation rose to 3.0%, up from 2.9% in August but slightly below analysts 3.1% forecast, while core inflation eased marginally to 3.0%. Despite the data disruptions and renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, U.S. equities advanced for the week, buoyed by gains in technology and energy stocks following new sanctions on Russia’s top oil firms that pushed oil prices higher. The Russell 2000 and S&P MidCap 400 indices outperformed large caps, while utilities and consumer staples lagged behind within the S&P 500.

Sub-Saharan African Economies

China: China’s economy grew 4.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, slowing from 5.2% in Q2 and marking its weakest expansion since Q3 2024. The moderation, though in line with expectations, reflects the impact of U.S. trade tensions, a persistent property downturn, and soft consumer spending. Retail sales rose at their slowest pace in a year despite government subsidy efforts, while unemployment eased slightly but stayed close to August’s six-month high. In contrast, industrial output picked up to a three-month high ahead of the Golden Week holidays. On the external front, both exports and imports exceeded forecasts as firms diversified markets and domestic demand improved with holiday spending. The National Bureau of Statistics warned that external risks remain elevated and that the recovery’s base is still fragile but maintained that 5.2% growth over the first nine months provides a solid foundation for achieving the 5% full-year target.

Angola: South Africa’s annual inflation rate ticked up to 3.4% in September 2025 from 3.3% in August, slightly below market forecasts of 3.5%. It remains within the official South African Reserve Bank’s target range of 3%-6%. Price growth accelerated primarily for housing & utilities (4.5% vs 4.3% in August), largely on account of electricity and gas and water supply; restaurants & hotels (3% vs 2.6%) and miscellaneous goods & services (2.8% vs 2.6%). At the same time, transportation costs declined at a slower pace (-0.1% vs -1.4%), of which fuels (-2.2% vs -5.7%). Meanwhile, food prices (4.5% vs 5.2%) recorded the smallest increase in five months.

Morocco: The annual inflation rate in Morocco accelerated slightly to 0.4% in September 2025, up from August’s 16-month low of 0.3%. The increase was mainly driven by faster price rises in food and non-alcoholic beverages (0.4% vs 0.2% in August) and furnishings (0.8% vs 0.6%). Inflation remained steady for housing and utilities (at 0.6%), healthcare (at 0.2%), restaurants and hotels (at 2.9%), and clothing and footwear (at 0.9%). However, inflation moderated in miscellaneous goods and services (1.4% vs 1.6%), education (2.1% vs 2.3%), and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (3.4% vs 3.5%).

 

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

  • The Federal Government officially launched the Federal Treasury Receipt (FTR) digital payment platform for smooth revenue collection.
  • Dangote Group reveals plans to expand its 650,000bpd refinery in the Lekki Free Zone to 1.40mbpd
  • NNPC revenue drops by N380bn in September 2025 as total crude oil and condensate production averaged 1.61mbpd in September, compared to 1.65mbpd in August.

Nigerian equity market: Earnings support market sentiment as ASI crosses the 150,000 mark

The Nigerian equities market sustained its bullish run this week, supported by a flurry of corporate disclosures and earnings releases from listed companies. The NGX All-Share Index rose by 4.47% to close at 155,640.55 points, while market capitalization equally advanced by 4.47% week-on-week to ₦98.8 trillion. Market activity was mixed, as 43 stocks recorded gains while 49 declined. Across sectors, three of the five major indices closed in positive territory, led by the Industrial Goods sector (+10.61% WoW), followed by the Oil & Gas index (+9.13% WoW). Overall, investor sentiment remained upbeat, sustaining the market’s upward trajectory despite notable profit-taking in select counters post-earnings.

Nigerian fixed-income market: New treasury bills issued at higher yield amid sustained resistance

At the recent treasury bills auction, the Debt Management Office (DMO) maintained a cautious approach in lowering rates, as market participants continued to bid at relatively higher levels. The DMO allotted a total of ₦391.5 billion, compared to ₦650 billion on offer and total bids of ₦750 billion. Stop rates for the 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day instruments rose by 30bps, 25bps, and 37bps to 15.30%, 15.50%, and 16.14%, respectively. In the secondary market, initial buying interest was observed but later tapered off, leaving the average treasury bill yield unchanged at 17.44%. Conversely, strong demand was recorded for short- and mid-tenor bonds, pushing the average yield lower to 15.87%. A similar trend was evident in the Eurobond market, where investors maintained an appetite for Nigerian sovereigns. Looking ahead to next week, we expect a quiet start to trading due to the scheduled bond auction, followed by renewed buying interest across Nigeria’s fixed income instruments later in the week.