Global Economy

US: US inflation eased to 2.3% in April 2025, the lowest level since February 2021 and slightly below expectations of 2.4%. Energy prices fell 3.7%, with gasoline dropping 11.8% and fuel oil down 9.6%, though natural gas surged 15.7%. Food inflation slowed to 2.8%, transportation to 2.5%, while shelter inflation held steady at 4%. However, prices for used cars and trucks rose 1.5% and new vehicles edged up 0.3%. On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.2%, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in March, driven mostly by a 0.3% increase in shelter costs, which contributed over half of the monthly rise. Energy prices also rose 0.7%, as gains in natural gas and electricity offset falling gasoline prices. Core inflation remained steady at 2.8%, in line with expectations.

 

 

Sub-Saharan African Economies

Eurozone: The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.3% in Q1 2025, slightly below the earlier 0.4% estimate but marking a fifth straight quarter of growth. The expansion was driven by stronger domestic demand, supported by easing inflation, lower borrowing costs, and renewed optimism following Germany’s fiscal policy shift. Expectations of higher defense spending also provided a boost, helping offset concerns over volatile US tariffs. However, growth momentum may weaken as new US trade duties begin to hit EU exports and rising uncertainty dampens business investment and consumer spending. Among key economies, Germany grew by 0.2%, Spain by 0.6%, Italy by 0.3%, while France and the Netherlands both posted modest 0.1% growth.

Nigeria: Nigeria’s annual inflation rate eased to 23.71% in April 2025, down from 24.23% in March. Food inflation the largest component of the inflation basket—remained high but slowed to 21.26%, reflecting some moderation in the prices of staples such as maize, wheat, and yam. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, also declined to 23.39% from 24.43% in the previous month. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose by 1.86%, compared to a 3.90% increase recorded in March.

Angola: Angola’s annual inflation rate eased for the ninth consecutive month to 22.32% in April 2025, the lowest level since January 2024, supported by the relative stability of the kwanza. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 1.34%, slightly below the 1.38% increase recorded in March and the softest uptick since May 2023. The moderation was mainly driven by slower price increases in hotels, cafés & restaurants (1.65% vs 1.75%) and miscellaneous goods & services (1.53% vs 1.56%).

 

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

  • Nigeria’s inflation rate eased to 23.71% in April 2025 from 24.23% in March, as both food and core inflation moderated, but persistent pressures from energy costs, FX weakness, and high transport and raw material costs are expected to keep the CBN on a hawkish path ahead of its May 19–20 policy meeting.
  • Nigeria’s Composite PMI held steady above the 50-point threshold at 52.2 in April 2025, reflecting sustained private sector momentum driven by FX stability, moderating prices, and strong demand, with continued expansion across industrial, services, and manufacturing sectors despite a dip in agriculture.

Nigerian equity market: NGX ends week strong on positive sentiment and broad sector gains

The Nigerian equities market ended the week on a positive note, posting gains across four consecutive sessions driven by sustained investor confidence, upbeat sectoral performance, and dividend declarations. The NGX All-Share Index rose 0.90% week-on-week to close at 109,719.37 points, while market capitalization advanced to ₦68.95 trillion from ₦68.34 trillion. Broad-based buying interest continued, with 61 gainers outperforming 31 decliners. Key performers included BETAGLASS (+46.31%), NNIG (+32.49%), and OANDO (+20.65%), while MULTIVERSE (-19.50%) led the laggards. All five major sectors closed in the green, with Consumer Goods leading the pack with a 4.08% gain. Overall, the market maintained its bullish trajectory supported by strong demand and corporate actions.

Nigerian fixed-income market: Investors’ mild buying interest pushes  bond yields lower

This week, in the absence of a primary market auction, the treasury bills market witnessed increased buying interest from investors, leading to a 5 basis points decline in the average yield to 20.84%. This was driven by significant inflows into the financial system, which supported demand. A similar trend was observed in the bond market, where buying activity across the curve pushed the average yield down by 4 basis points to 19.03%.In the Eurobond market, Nigeria’s sovereign instruments continued to recover, with the average yield falling by 60 basis points to 9.79%, supported by easing global trade tensions. Looking ahead, we anticipate cautious sentiment in the coming trading week as investors await the outcome of the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, particularly in light of the recent moderation in inflation figures.