Global Economy

U.S.A: U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2% in October, driven by higher shelter costs, including rents, while progress on reducing inflation has slowed, potentially limiting Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next year. The Labor Department reported that shelter accounted for over half of the monthly increase, with food prices up 0.2% despite a sharp 6.4% drop in egg prices, and gasoline prices falling 0.9%, offset by a 1.2% rise in electricity costs. Annual inflation climbed to 2.6% from 2.4% in September, reflecting a higher base and fueling concerns that economic policies under newly elected President Donald Trump, including tax cuts, tariffs, and potential labor market disruptions, could drive inflation higher in the year ahead.

 

Sub-Saharan African Economies

Euro Area: Eurozone employment rose slightly more than anticipated in the last quarter, as the economy grew at a steady pace, offering hope for a soft landing after a prolonged period of stagnation. Employment in the 20-nation bloc increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, double the forecasted rate, lifting annual growth to 1.0% from 0.9% previously. The eurozone economy expanded by 0.4% in the third quarter, twice the pace economists expected, according to Eurostat. Despite weak external demand, industrial struggles, and high interest rates pressuring margins and private consumption, firms have retained workers, wary of rehiring challenges in a tight post-pandemic labor market. This resilience is underscored by a record-low unemployment rate of 6.3% in September, suggesting the labor market remains robust even amid economic headwinds.

Angola: Angola’s annual inflation rate eased to 29.17% in October 2024, the lowest in six months, down from 29.93% in September, yet above the Central Bank’s 23% year-end target. Monthly inflation also slowed to 1.55%, the softest in 16 months, from 1.63% in September.

Nigeria: Nigeria’s inflation rate increased for the second consecutive month to 33.9% in October 2024, a four-month high, up from 32.7% in September. The rise was driven by surging food inflation (39.2%), escalating energy costs, and foreign exchange volatility. Severe flooding and crises in agricultural regions reduced harvests, while higher petrol prices and subsidy removal pushed transportation inflation to 29.3%.

Tunisia: Tunisia’s economy grew by 1.8% year-on-year in Q3 2024, the highest since Q3 2022, up from 1% in Q2. Growth was driven by stronger performance in agriculture, forestry & fishing (10.6%), and rebounds in sectors such as textiles, mining, mechanical industries, and trade services. Quarterly GDP growth accelerated to 0.8%, the fastest in nearly three years, from 0.2% in the previous quarter.

 

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

  • Nigeria’s headline inflation rate climbed to 33.88% in October 2024, surpassing the previous month’s 32.70% and last year’s 27.33%, primarily driven by rising food, energy, and other essential goods costs, prompting expectations of further increases and a continued hawkish monetary policy stance.
  • The CBN Composite PMI for October 2024 declined to 49.3 points from 50.5 points in September, signalling deteriorating business conditions across manufacturing, agriculture, and services sectors.
  • The Federal Executive Council has approved Nigeria’s ₦47.9 trillion 2025 budget, featuring ₦13.8 trillion in new borrowings.

Nigerian equity market: Local bourse rebounds driven by gains in blue chip stocks

The Nigerian stock market closed on a positive note, recovering from the previous week’s losses. Key stocks like Aradel, Flourmill, and UBA drove the market higher, pushing the All-Share Index up 0.5% to 97,722.28 points. Market capitalization increased by N294.96 billion to N59.22 trillion, fueled by significant gains in sectors like Insurance (up 2.84%) and Banking (up 2.32%). While some stocks like Oando, VFD, and Unicap experienced declines, the overall market sentiment remained bullish.

Nigerian fixed-income market: Market participants factor the latest inflation figures into yield levels.

The Nigerian fixed-income market traded largely bearish this week, reflecting system illiquidity and the impact of market participants pricing in the latest inflation figure of 33.88%. Treasury bills saw negative performance, with the average yield rising by 6 basis points (bps) to 24.15%. The bond market remained flat for most of the week but ended on a negative note, as yields edged up by 2bps to 19.43%. Similarly, the Eurobond market experienced a weak performance, with the average yield increasing by 34bps week-on-week to 9.66%.Looking ahead, we expect the bearish trend to persist in the next trading week as market players continue to adjust yields in response to the latest economic indicators.