Global Economy

US: U.S. stocks ended the week mixed, with the Dow and S&P 500 posting modest gains while the Nasdaq, S&P MidCap 400, and Russell 2000 declined. Markets fell early in the week on concerns over high valuations and AI spending before some indexes recovered in a volatile Friday session. The government shutdown ended Wednesday after President Trump signed a funding bill through January 30, easing a major market headwind, though uncertainty about a return to normal operations weighed on Thursday’s trading. Economic data remained in focus, with the BLS confirming the September jobs report will be released on November 20. Hawkish comments from Fed officials kept rate cut expectations low, with December cut odds dropping to 46%. Small-cap stocks underperformed, with the Russell 2000 falling 1.83%.In fixed income, Treasury yields rose modestly while municipal bonds outperformed amid oversubscribed new issuances. High yield bonds advanced on specific news and earnings before partially retracing amid a weaker macro backdrop.

Sub-Saharan African Economies

China: China’s consumer prices rose 0.2% year on year in October 2025, beating expectations for no change and reversing the 0.3% decline recorded in the previous month. This marked the first increase in consumer inflation since June and the fastest pace since January. Non food inflation picked up to 0.9% from 0.7% in September, supported by expanded consumer trade in programmes and stronger holiday spending during the Golden Week, both of which boosted domestic demand. Prices continued to rise for housing at 0.1%, clothing at 1.7%, healthcare at 1.4%, and education at 0.9%, while transport costs fell at a slower pace of 1.5% compared with 2.0% earlier. Food prices recorded their smallest decline in three months at 2.9% versus 4.4% previously. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.2% year on year, the highest in 20 months, after a 1.0% increase in September. On a monthly basis, consumer prices also rose 0.2% after a 0.1% gain in September, reaching the highest level in three months.

Egypt: Egypt’s annual urban inflation rate accelerated for the first time in five months to 12.5% in October 2025, up from 11.7% in September, above the market forecast of 12.0%. This marked the highest rate since July, driven primarily by rising fuel prices and a new law allowing landlords to raise rents. The government raised prices for a wide range of fuel products by nearly 13% on October 17. Food inflation inched up to 1.5% from 1.4% in September, which was the lowest level since April 2021.

In a monthly basis, the consumer price index (CPI) increased 1.8% in October, matching September’s pace and remaining the fastest rate in four months.

Senegal: Annual inflation rate slowed for the first time in three months to 1.9% in October 2025, down from 2.6% in September, which had marked the highest level since March 2024. It was also the lowest rate since July, mainly reflecting a moderation in food prices, which rose 3.2%, down from 4.9% in September, marking the softest increase in three months. Excluding energy and fresh products, the core index climbed 4.6% yoy, easing from a 4.8% rise in September. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.2% in October, the first drop in six months, reversing a 1.3% increase in September.

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

  • S&P Global Ratings revised Nigeria’s outlook to “positive” from “stable” while affirming its “B–/B” rating, citing steady reform progress, improving macro indicators, stronger external buffers, and rising investor confidence despite lingering structural and fiscal vulnerabilities.
  • The government has deferred the planned 15% ad valorem duty on petrol and diesel imports to Q1 2026 and signaled a review of the proposed capital gains tax increase.
  • Nigeria’s composite PMI strengthened to 55.4 in October from 54.0 in September, reflecting broad-based expansion across agriculture, industry, and services.

Nigerian equity market: Bearish momentum persists amid mid-week recovery

The domestic equities market closed bearish for the third consecutive week, even though it posted gains in three of the five trading sessions and saw its first positive sessions for November. The market remains fragile, particularly after Tuesday’s sharp dip to its lowest level since 2010, which continues to weigh on investor sentiment. As a result, the NGX All-Share Index declined by 1.68% to 147,013.59 points from 149,524.81 points the previous week, while market capitalisation fell to ₦93.50 trillion from ₦95 trillion. During the week, the NGX also activated the trading code for Presco Plc’s Rights Issue of 167 million ordinary shares priced at ₦1,420, offered on a one-for-six basis to existing shareholders. Market breadth was mixed, with forty-eight gainers and forty-five decliners, and three of five major sectors ended bullish, led by the insurance sector which advanced 2.42% WoW.

Nigerian fixed-income market: Investors sustain demand as fixed income yields trend downward

With no NTB auction this week, activity in the fixed-income market was driven mainly by secondary market sentiment, as average Treasury bills yield declined by 61bps WoW to 16.40%, supported by buying interest across the curve, with short-, mid-, and long-tenor yields falling by 31bps, 30bps, and 101bps respectively. The bond market also strengthened, as the average yield moderated by 14bps to 16.17% WoW, reflecting demand at the short and long ends, while mid-tenor yields were broadly stable. Eurobond yields edged lower as well, with the average sovereign yield easing to 7.77% from 7.97% the previous week, mirroring improved risk sentiment. Overall, the market displayed modest bullishness as investors positioned ahead of expected supply later in the month.