Global Economy

US: Personal income in the US rose by 0.4% in September, driven mainly by higher wages, salaries, and dividend income. Disposable personal income increased by 0.3%, while personal consumption expenditures also grew by 0.3%, with most of the increase coming from stronger spending on services. Real disposable income inched up by 0.1%, but real consumer spending was flat, indicating that nominal spending growth was largely influenced by price increases. The personal saving rate remained low at 4.7%, with total personal saving at 1.09 trillion dollars. Inflation pressures stayed firm as the PCE price index rose 0.3% month over month and 2.8% compared to a year earlier, with the same yearly rate recorded for the index excluding food and energy. Income gains were supported by growth in private and government wages as well as higher employer pension and insurance contributions, while dividend income saw a notable rise.

Sub-Saharan African Economies

Euro Area: Euro area consumer price inflation edged up to 2.2% in November 2025 from 2.1% in October, slightly above market expectations. Services inflation rose to 3.5%, its highest level since April, while the decline in energy prices moderated. Inflation for non energy industrial goods and for food, alcohol, and tobacco remained unchanged. Core inflation stayed at 2.4%, just below the forecast. Across major economies, Germany recorded a notable increase to 2.6%, above the European Central Bank’s target, while Spain and the Netherlands saw slight declines. France and Italy continued to report much lower inflation at 0.8% and 1.1%.

Nigeria: GDP grew by 3.98% in real terms in Q3 2025, slightly below the 4.23% recorded in Q2 but higher than the 3.86% posted in Q3 2024. The NBS reported nominal GDP of N113.58 trillion, up from N96.16 trillion a year earlier, while real GDP stood at N57.03 trillion. Growth was driven by the non oil sector, which contributed 96.56% to total output and expanded by 3.91%. The oil sector contributed 3.44% and recorded a y/y real growth of 5.84%, supported by average production of 1.64 mbpd. Services accounted for 52.03% of real GDP, agriculture 31.21%, and industries 15.77%. Manufacturing contributed 7.62%, slightly below the previous quarter, and trade contributed 16.42%.

South Africa: South Africa’s economy grew 0.5% in Q3 2025, marking a fourth consecutive quarter of expansion and extending the longest growth streak since 2021. The pace slowed from a revised 0.9% in Q2 but matched expectations, while annual growth came in stronger than forecast at 2.1%. Mining led sector performance with 2.3% growth on stronger output of key minerals, and agriculture expanded 1.1%, with nine of ten major industries recording gains. Construction returned to growth after three quarters of contraction, though electricity and water declined 2.5%. Household spending rose 0.7% and fixed investment increased 1.6%, while exports and imports grew 0.7% and 2.2% respectively.

Ghana: Ghana’s inflation eased for the 11th consecutive month, dropping to 6.3% in November 2025 from 8% in October, supported by a stronger cedi helped by higher cocoa and gold prices. Food inflation moderated to 6.6% from 9.5%, while non-food inflation slowed to 6.1% from 6.9%.

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

  • Nigeria’s federal government approved a medium-term fiscal framework for 2026, projecting total expenditure of N54.4 trillion ($37.7 billion)
  • Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.98% in Q3’2025
  • Federal government secures a $500 million loan from AFDB to finance the second phase of the Economic Governance and Energy Transition Support Programme

Nigerian equity market: NGX  breaks five-week decline with strong early-December rebound

The Nigerian stock market ended its five-week losing streak, closing the first week of December with a broad-based recovery across the Industrial Goods, Banking, Consumer Goods and Insurance sectors. The NGX All-Share Index gained 2.45% to 147,040.08 points, while market capitalization rose 2.67% to ₦93.72 trillion, supported in part by the listing of ETI’s additional 5.38 billion ordinary shares. Market breadth was positive, with 55 gainers led by heavyweights such as NCR, UACN, GUINNESS, DANGCEM and NB, while 29 equities recorded declines, including CAP, NASCON and DANGSUGAR. Sector performance was similarly upbeat, as four of the five major indices closed higher, with the Industrial Goods sector leading the advance with a 7.38% WoW gain. Overall, the market’s strong rebound reflects improved investor sentiment and renewed buying interest across key sectors.

Nigerian fixed-income market: DMO issues new 1-year treasury bill at 17.50% (versus 16.04% previously)

At the first Treasury Bills auction in December, market bids reflected the ongoing bearish sentiment, enabling the DMO to raise ₦709 billion compared to the ₦700 billion offered. Stop rates for the 91-day and 182-day maturities were unchanged at 15.30% and 15.50%, respectively, while the 364-day bill recorded a significant 145bps increase, clearing at 17.50%. Following the auction, bearish pressure extended into the secondary market, with Treasury Bills closing higher at an average yield of 16.98%, driven largely by long-tenor instruments as investors moved to lock in elevated rates. A similar trend played out in the bond market, where average yields inched up by 2bps to 15.64%. Conversely, Nigeria’s Eurobonds continued to strengthen, with yields declining by 36bps to an average of 7.07%. We anticipate sustained bearish sentiment in the domestic fixed-income market next week as investors persist in demanding higher yields.