Global Economy

US: US stocks ended November on a firm note with the final trading session seeing modest gains as the S&P 500 rose 0.5%, the Nasdaq gained 0.8% and the Dow added 0.6% in a post-Thanksgiving shortened session on Friday. Risk appetite has returned with investors assigning roughly an 80% to 85% probability that the Fed delivers a rate cut within the next few weeks. Communication services led the advance while healthcare lagged. Large-cap tech was mixed with Microsoft up 1.3%, Amazon 1.8%, Meta 2.3%, Broadcom 1.4% and Tesla 0.8% while Nvidia slipped 1.8% and Alphabet was roughly flat. Earlier a technical outage at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange briefly disrupted US futures after cooling systems failed at a Chicago area data centre, adding to intraday volatility. For the month the S&P 500 was mostly flat, the Dow added 0.3% and the Nasdaq has lost 1.6%, ending a seven-month winning streak as investors reassess stretched AI valuations.

Sub-Saharan African Economies

Germany: The annual inflation rate in Germany came in at 2.3% in November 2025, the same as in October, and below forecasts of 2.4%, preliminary estimates showed. Inflation for services steadied at 3.5% and goods inflation slowed to 1.1% from 1.2%. Food prices rose less (1.2% vs 1.3%) and energy cost decreased at a slower pace (-0.1% vs -0.9%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI declined 0.2%, the first decrease since January, after a 0.3% rise in October and compared to forecasts of a 0.3% drop. Annual core inflation rate slowed to 2.7% from 2.8%. Meanwhile, the EU-harmonised CPI rose 2.6% on the year, the most in nine months, from 2.3% in October and higher than forecasts of 2.4%. On the month, the harmonised CPI fell 0.5%.

Egypt: Egypt’s economy grew by 5.3% in Q1 FY 2025/26, the strongest rate in over three years and well above the 3.5% a year ago, according to preliminary estimates from the planning ministry. The strong performance was attributed to ongoing economic and structural reforms that boosted key sectors like non-oil manufacturing, tourism, and telecommunications. Non-oil manufacturing activity expanded by 14.5% in Q1, with motor vehicles, chemicals, beverages, and furniture up 50%, 44%, 37%, and 34%, respectively. The communications and information technology sector advanced by 14.5%, while financial intermediation rose by 10.2%. At the same time, the tourism sector grew by 13.8%, with nearly 5.1 million tourists visiting the country. Suez Canal activity recorded positive growth of 8.6%, the first increase since Q2 2023/2024 fiscal year. By contrast, the extraction sector contracted 5.3%, reflecting a 6.6% decline in petroleum output and a 10.9% reduction in natural gas production.

Nigeria: The Central Bank of Nigeria maintained its benchmark rate at 27% on November 25, 2025, following a 50bps cut in September, saying the pause was necessary to maintain the progress achieved in ensuring low and stable inflation. Governor Cardoso said the Committee decided by a majority vote to maintain the current policy stance, suggesting that members were not yet convinced economic conditions justified another cut.

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

  • Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee held the interest rate constant at 27%
  • Nigeria’s broad money supply rose to N119.04tn in October 2025 from N117.78tn in September
  • Champion Breweries has opened its N15.91bn rights issue to qualified shareholders at N16 per ordinary share.
  • Dangote Petroleum Refinery has entered into a strategic partnership with US-based Honeywell to advance its objective of expanding capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028

Nigerian equity market: NGX  extends weekly decline despite selective gains

The Nigerian equities market recorded a marginally bearish close for the fifth consecutive week, despite posting gains in three trading sessions. The NGX All Share Index fell by 0.14% to 143,520.53 points, while market capitalisation similarly declined by 0.14% to N91.29 trillion. Month to date, the market remained negative with a 6.88% loss. A total of thirty eight equities appreciated, led by IKEJAHOTEL which gained 45.08%, NCR up 32.97%, UACN up 12.71%, NGXGROUP up 8.91%, NAHCO up 7.41%, UNILEVER up 4.35%, EUNISELL up 2.53%, ACCESSCORP up 2.44%, TRANSCORP up 2.44%, GTCO up 2.25%, FIRSTHOLDCO up 1.47%, MTNN up 1.20%, PZ up 1.01% and ZENITHBANK up 0.42%. Meanwhile, thirty six equities declined. Sectorally, only the banking sector closed positive, rising 0.67% WoW.

Nigerian fixed-income market: An era of robust supply mixed with the MPC’s cautious stance

At the November 2025 bond auction, the DMO demonstrated increased borrowing appetite, raising a total of ₦583.5 billion compared with the ₦460 billion initially offered. Stop rates inched up to 15.90% and 16.00% for the 2030 and 2032 maturities, from 15.83% and 15.85% previously. In the secondary market, the treasury bills segment recorded mild bearish activity on select instruments. Nevertheless, the market ended the week on a positive note, with the average yield falling by 12bps to 16.84%.On the bonds side, bearish sentiment was more pronounced, especially across the short- and mid-tenor segments of the curve, leading the average yield to rise by 14bps to 15.61% for the week. In the Eurobond market, Nigeria’s sovereign papers continued to attract investor interest, with the average yield moderating to 7.43% from 7.76% previously. Overall, we anticipate a mixed trading pattern in the fixed-income market in the coming week.