Global Economy

US: Funding for the U.S. government has been halted after President Donald Trump’s Republican Party failed to reach an agreement with opposition Democrats on a spending bill, triggering a partial government shutdown. The impasse, though not unusual in American politics, is particularly tense as Trump sees the deadlock as a chance to push further reductions. The standoff centers on healthcare spending, with Democrats demanding an extension of expiring tax credits that make health insurance more affordable and a reversal of Trump’s cuts to Medicaid and federal health agencies, while Republicans refuse to include these measures. Although the House passed a temporary funding bill, it remains stalled in the Senate, where Republicans lack the 60 votes needed to override Democratic opposition. As a result, around 750,000 federal workers (roughly 40%) are expected to go without pay, though essential workers like border agents, law enforcement officers, air-traffic controllers, and hospital staff will continue working. Social Security and Medicare payments will still go out, but programs such as food assistance, federal preschool, and institutions like the Smithsonian museums are likely to be suspended. Unlike previous shutdowns that quickly ended under pressure, this one could last longer, as Trump appears willing to sustain it to identify and permanently eliminate “non-essential” workers. Despite last-minute meetings between Trump and congressional leaders, neither side has shown signs of compromise, leaving the U.S. facing a prolonged shutdown with mounting economic and political fallout.

Sub-Saharan African Economies

Britain: Britain’s economy slowed in Q2 2025, expanding by 0.3% q/q compared to 0.7% in Q1, as momentum faded after a strong start to the year. Annual growth stood at 1.4%, slightly revised upward from 1.2%, while GDP per head rose 0.9%, reflecting weak productivity amid rapid population growth. Despite remaining the fastest-growing G7 economy in H1, much of the expansion was driven by one-off export surges ahead of U.S. tariff implementation. The services sector grew modestly, but consumer-facing activities dipped slightly as household spending remained subdued, with the savings ratio edging up to 10.7%. Business investment, however, was a bright spot, revised up sharply to 3.0% year-on-year from 0.1%. Ahead of the November 26 budget, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves faces pressure to raise taxes by tens of billions to meet fiscal targets, as higher borrowing costs, U.S. tariffs, and welfare U-turns weigh on public finances.

Ghana: Ghana’s annual inflation rate decelerated further to 9.4% in September 2025, the softest since August 2021, from 11.5% the month before, marking the ninth consecutive period of slowing price growth. Still, it remains above the Bank of Ghana’s 8% target range, which has a 6–10% tolerance band. September’s slowdown was largely due to falling food prices, which dropped to 11% from 14.8% in August, whereas non-food prices eased more modestly to 8.2% from 8.7%. At the same time, imported inflation moderated to 7.4% in September from 9.5% in August, supported by the relative strength of the cedi despite recent weakness.

Egypt: The Central Bank of Egypt cut its overnight deposit rate by 100bps to 21% in their October 2025 meeting, the fourth reduction this year, and loosely aligned with expectations of a slash that ranged between a cut of 100bps and 200bps. The move added to a cumulative 525bps in rate cuts in 2025, with the Egyptian pound’s recent strength adding room for the central bank to lower rates and ease pressures on growth and soaring levels on interest payments by the central government.  The cut is expected to mark the end of the current easing cycle for the CBE as the central government is due to hike fuel prices later this month as part of reforms backed by the IMF, risking some traction in inflation.

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

• Nigeria’s Stanbic IBTC PMI eased slightly to 53.4 in September from 54.2 in August, reflecting continued expansion in private sector activity supported by moderating inflation, stable FX conditions, and improved demand.
• Effective January 1, 2026, the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) rate for companies will rise from 10% to 30%, aligning with the Companies Income Tax rate to curb tax arbitrage and artificial asset disposals, though Capital Market Operators warn the higher rate could dampen investor sentiment and propose a reduction to 25%, while individuals will be taxed based on their progressive income tax bands.

Nigerian equity market: Bullish momentum persists as NGX records another week of gains

The Nigerian equities market extended its bullish momentum into the fourth consecutive week, despite a shortened four-day trading week due to the Independence Day holiday. The rally was fueled by strong performances in the oil and gas, industrial goods, banking, and consumer goods sectors. The NGX All-Share Index rose by 1.02% week-on-week to close at 143,584.04 points, while market capitalization increased by 1.31% to ₦91.14 trillion, partly boosted by the listing of 14.14 billion new Wema Bank shares. Market breadth remained positive, with 53 gainers led by Eterna (+32.80%),  and PZ (+20.87%), against 43 decliners including Julius Berger (-17.79%) and Custodian (-4.77%). Sectoral performance was broadly positive, with four out of five major sectors closing in the green, led by the oil and gas sector which advanced 5.68% week-on-week.

Nigerian fixed-income market: DMO cuts rates at the bond auction.

This week, the Debt Management Office (DMO) successfully conducted the September FGN Bond Auction, raising ₦578 billion across two maturities against an offer of ₦200 billion, with total bids reaching ₦1.26 trillion. The secondary market traded positively, supported by robust system liquidity of over ₦6 trillion, despite resistance from investors seeking higher yields. In the treasury bills market, the average yield rose by 12bps to 17.93%, driven by demand for long-tenor bills. Meanwhile, bond yields declined by 24bps to 16.27% as auction sentiment influenced secondary market activity. We expect similar trends next week, supported by potential primary market activity and sustained system liquidity.