Global Economy

US initial jobless claims rose 7,000 to 226,000 in the final week of July, above expectations of 221,000, while continuing claims jumped 38,000 to 1.97mn, the highest since November 2021 and well above the 1.95mn forecast. The data points to slowing hiring and a softer labor market, though initial claims remain below early-June peaks. Claims by federal employees fell slightly to 708 after hitting a four-month high the previous week.

Sub-Saharan African Economies

China: China’s consumer prices were unchanged year-on-year in July 2025, beating expectations for a slight decline, as non-food prices rose 0.3% amid government subsidies and higher housing, clothing, healthcare, and education costs. Food prices fell 1.6%, the steepest drop in five months, while transport costs declined at a slower pace. Core inflation climbed to 0.8%, its highest in 17 months. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.4%, reversing June’s drop, driven partly by extreme weather disruptions.

Angola: The annual inflation rate in Angola continued to ease to 19.48% in July 2025, setting a new low since November 2023 and extending a downward trend underway since August 2024, helped by the relative stability of the kwanza. It compares with June’s reading of 19.73%. Prices slowed down for some CPI items, including health (25.1% vs 26.6% in June); alcoholic beverages & tobacco (21.8% vs 23%); hotels, cafes & restaurants (21.3% vs 23.2%); food & non-alcoholic beverages (20% vs 21%) and clothing & footwear (20.9% vs 22.3%). On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 1.47% in July, after a 1.21% increase in the previous month.

Egypt: The annual urban inflation rate in Egypt slowed for the second consecutive month to 13.9% in July 2025, down from 14.9% in June, after reaching a four-month high in May due to increases in fuel prices. This marked the lowest inflation rate since April, mainly driven by a sharp slowdown in food prices the lowest since June 2021 (3.4% vs. 6.9% in June). Price increases also moderated across several categories, including transport (41.5% vs. 42.2%), restaurants and hotels (15.2% vs. 17.3%), clothing (14.9% vs. 16.0%), furnishings (12.9% vs. 13.8%), communications (12.1% vs. 12.2%), and miscellaneous goods and services (13.6% vs. 13.7%). On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.5% in July, following a 0.1% decline in June. This marked the second consecutive month of deflation and the steepest drop since May 2024, driven by significant declines in the prices of meat and poultry (-4.9%), fruits (-11%), and vegetables (-7%).

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

  • Nigeria’s foreign capital inflows rose 67.12% y/y to $5.64bn in Q1 2025, driven by $4.21bn in institutional money market activities that doubled portfolio inflows to $5.20bn, while FDI stayed low at $0.13bn, with high rates seen sustaining FPI growth but FDI remaining weak amid economic and global headwinds.
  • President Bola Tinubu has signed the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act, which raises capital requirements for insurers and reinsurers, introduces stricter licensing conditions, and is expected to boost sector liquidity, strengthen shock absorption, and drive bullish sentiment in insurance equities and Insurtech growth, pending further clarity on some provisions.

Nigerian equity market: NGX extends winning streak as insurance sector soars on new reform act

Despite closing Friday in the red, the NGX equities market sustained its bullish momentum for the eleventh consecutive week, driven by strong gains in the insurance sector following the signing of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Bill into law on August 5, 2025. The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) rose 3.18% to 145,754.91 points from 141,263.05 points, while market capitalisation climbed to ₦92.21 trillion from ₦89.37 trillion. Sixty-six equities advanced, against forty-four decliners. Four out of five major sectors closed in the green, with the insurance index surging 41.00% week-on-week.

Nigerian fixed-income market: Market resistance supports bearish sentiment

This week, the Debt Management Office (DMO) successfully issued ₦173 billion at the treasury bills auction, despite receiving bids totaling ₦367 billion. Unlike previous auctions where yields, particularly on the one-year instrument, trended lower, the stop rate for the one-year tenor closed higher at 16.50% (versus 15.88% at the previous auction). Meanwhile, stop rates for the 90-day and 180-day maturities were unchanged at 15.00% and 15.50%, respectively. In the secondary market, bearish sentiment persisted as market participants resisted lower yields. Consequently, yield on treasury bills rose by 9bps week-on-week, while bonds climbed by 12bps. In contrast, Nigeria’s Eurobonds continued to attract buying interest, with average yields declining by 18sbps. We expect a similar sentiment in the coming trading week, particularly given the market’s current illiquid conditions.