Global Economy

US: Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 4,000 to 217,000 in the third week of July, the lowest since April and below expectations of 227,000, marking the sixth straight weekly decline. This points to continued resilience in the labor market despite earlier concerns. However, outstanding claims edged up to 1.96 million, the second-highest since November 2021, signaling a possible hiring slowdown. Claims by federal workers rose sharply by 193 to 789, the highest in four months, amid recent layoffs at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Sub-Saharan African Economies

China: The PBoC held key lending rates steady in June, keeping the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year at 3.5%, as expected. This follows a 10bps cut last month aimed at offsetting the impact of new U.S. tariffs. Despite mixed economic data, strong May retail sales, weak industrial output, and below-forecast lending, the decision signals confidence in hitting GDP targets. Major state banks had also recently cut deposit rates to support growth.

Nigeria: Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.13% y/y in Q1 2025, accelerating from 2.27% in the same period last year, supported by broad-based sectoral improvements. The services sector remained the key growth anchor, rising 4.33% and accounting for 57.5% of GDP, with telecommunications and information services posting a strong 7.40% increase. The industrial sector also gained momentum, expanding 3.42% on the back of modest gains in manufacturing, which grew by 1.69% and contributed 9.62% to total output. However, oil sector growth moderated to 1.87%, down from 4.71% in Q1 2024. Agriculture saw a slight recovery, inching up 0.07% after contracting in the same period last year.

South Africa: South Africa’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.0% in June 2025, the highest since February, from 2.8% in the prior two months. The increase was driven by broad-based price pressures across several categories, including food and non-alcoholic beverages (5.1% vs. 4.8%), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (4.4% vs. 4.3%), health (4.6% vs. 4.4%), and services such as restaurants, accommodation, and recreation.

However, some relief came from slower inflation in housing and utilities (4.4% vs. 4.5%) and household furnishings (1.1% vs. 2.0%), while transport costs remained in deflation, though at a reduced pace (-3.3% vs. -4.8%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.3%, up from May’s 0.2%. Core inflation eased slightly to 2.9%, the lowest in over four years, pointing to still-muted underlying inflationary pressures.

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

  • The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria’s economy reached ₦372.82 trillion (US$244bn) in 2024 after GDP rebasing, with agriculture, trade, and real estate as top contributors, while GDP growth improved to 3.38% in 2024 and Q1 2025 grew 3.13% YoY from 2.27% in Q1 2024.
  • The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained interest rates at 27.50% for the third time in 2025, keeping all other key indices unchanged, citing the need to sustain disinflation momentum and manage price pressures.
  • The Nigerian Senate has approved President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s $21.8 billion medium-term external borrowing plan for 2025–2026.

Nigerian equity market: Ngx rallies past 134,000 points as sector-wide gains persist

The Nigerian equity market extended its bullish streak, with the ASI rising 2.18% to close at 134,452.93 points, while market capitalization increased to ₦85.06 trillion. Gains were driven by industrial goods, insurance, and consumer goods stocks, lifting the NGXASI above the 134,000-point mark. Sixty equities advanced, led by BUACEMENT (+9.40%), PRESCO (+22.53%), and OANDO (+18.91%), while 43 declined, including MEYER (-21.43%). All major sectors closed positive, with the Industrial Goods sector leading at +4.66%. Year-to-date return climbed to 36.63%, reflecting sustained investor optimism.

Nigerian fixed-income market: DMO constrains treasury bills sale at the primary market auction

During the week, the Debt Management Office (DMO) successfully held the second treasury bills auction for July 2025, fully allotting the ₦290 million on offer. However, stop rates declined across all tenors, down 74bps, 70bps, and 42bps on the 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day bills, respectively settling at 15.00%, 15.50%, and 15.88%. As a result, the secondary market maintained its positive momentum, with average T-bill yield falling by 16bps to 17.65% and bond yields down by 29bps to 16.25%. Similarly, the Eurobond market recorded strong interest across the curve, pushing the average yield down by 24bps to 8.37%. Looking ahead, we anticipate renewed buying activity towards the end of next week as investors seek to take advantage of prevailing yield levels amid the current sentiment.