Global Economy

US: Initial jobless claims in the US dropped by 5,000 to 227,000 in early July, marking the fourth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest level in seven weeks—defying expectations of an increase to 235,000. This reinforces the view that the labor market remains resilient despite high interest rates and ongoing economic uncertainty. However, continuing claims rose by 10,000 to 1.965 million, the highest since 2021, signaling a potential slowdown in hiring. Notably, federal jobless claims fell to 438, tying a post-December 2024 low, amid recent dismissals at the Department of Government Efficiency.

Sub-Saharan African Economies

China: China’s consumer prices rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June 2025, reversing a three-month decline and marking the first annual increase since January. The uptick was driven by government subsidies, e-commerce events, and easing trade tensions with the U.S. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose to a 14-month high of 0.7% y/y, signaling a gradual recovery in domestic demand. Non-food prices edged higher while food prices continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace. On a monthly basis, however, inflation fell 0.1%, reflecting persistent underlying weakness as June marked the fourth monthly decline in 2025.Ask ChatGPT

Angola: Angola’s annual inflation rate eased further to 19.73% in June 2025 the lowest level since November 2023 extending the disinflationary trend observed since August 2024. The continued stability of the kwanza, alongside improved availability of consumer goods, has been instrumental in dampening price pressures. However, m/m inflation edged up to 1.21% in June from 1.17% in May, largely reflecting higher costs in housing and utilities (+3.33%) as well as miscellaneous goods and services (+1.56%).

Egypt: The Central Bank of Egypt maintained its key policy rate at 24% in July 2025, citing improving inflation dynamics and steady domestic recovery. Headline and core inflation eased in Q2, supported by lower food prices, while GDP growth is estimated at 4.8%. Despite global uncertainties and commodity price volatility, the CBE opted to hold rates to preserve the disinflation trend and signaled a data-dependent approach going forward.

Rwanda: Rwanda’s inflation rate rose to 8.3% in June 2025, marking its highest level since November 2023 and extending the upward trajectory for a fourth straight month. The acceleration from May’s 7.7% was driven by higher prices in restaurants and hotels (+15.9% vs. 13.5%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (+10.7% vs. 10.0%), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+8.8% vs. 7.2%), and clothing and footwear (+6.6% vs. 6.4%). Communication costs remained elevated at 17.2%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were unchanged, in line with the flat reading recorded in May.

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

  • DisCos revenue drops to ₦553.6bn in H1 2025 as collection efficiency falls to 74%, power sector subsidy rises to ₦536.4bn amid mounting GenCo debt.
  • Nigeria’s composite PMI rose to 52.3 in June 2025 from 52.1 in May, lifting H1 average to 51.75 (vs 45.75 in H1 2024), as improved FX stability, softer inflation, and stronger demand drove broad-based private sector expansion despite weak employment outside agriculture.
  • US slashes Nigerian visa validity to 3 months, single-entry, citing security gaps—raising concerns for education, tourism, and diplomatic ties.

Nigerian equity market: ASI breaks 120,000 mark, posts best weekly gain so far in 2025

The Nigerian equities market extended its bullish run for a sixth straight week, with the NGX ASI jumping 4.26% to close at 126,149.59 points—its highest weekly gain this year. Market capitalization rose 4.54% to ₦79.80 trillion, supported by strong buying interest across major sectors. Gains in 90 stocks, led by NGXGROUP (+54.85%), ZENITHBANK (+21.22%), and GTCO (+13.10%), far outweighed losses in just 16 counters. Sectoral performance was broadly positive, with Insurance up 13.83% WoW, while Oil & Gas was the only laggard, down 0.72%. The rally was driven by renewed interest in banking, insurance, and consumer stocks. Investor confidence remains high amid improving market sentiment and strong corporate earnings.

Nigerian fixed-income market: Bullish trend as 1-year NTB stop rate dropped 254bps at auction

The federal government displayed lower borrowing appetite this week, issuing just ₦201 billion in treasury bills despite offering ₦250 billion and receiving ₦1.3 trillion in bids. This led to a drop in stop rates by 206bps, 215bps, and 254bps to 15.74%, 16.20%, and 16.30% for the 91-, 182-, and 364-day bills, respectively. Supported by the under issuance, positive system liquidity, and expectations of lower yields, average secondary market yields fell 162 bps to 18.31%. The bond market remained bullish, with yields declining 71 bps, while Eurobond yields stayed flat at 8.50%. We expect a relatively quiet session next week, as some investors may take profit on their fixed income positions.