Global Economy

US: Initial jobless claims in the United States rose by 6,000 to 222,000 in the third week of April, in line with expectations and near a two-month low. Meanwhile, continuing claims fell by 37,000 to 1,841,000, a two-month low and below forecasts of 1,880,000, reflecting a still-tight labor market. Claims filed by federal employees, under scrutiny following firings by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), edged up by 87 to 629, though many layoffs involved severance packages delaying immediate benefit claims.

Sub-Saharan African Economies

China: The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept its key lending rates steady for the sixth straight month in April, maintaining the one-year loan prime rate at 3.1% and the five-year rate at 3.6%, both at record lows. The decision, which matched expectations, comes as the central bank monitors the impact of U.S. trade tensions before adding new stimulus. This follows stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 5.4% y/y in Q1 2025, the fastest in 18 months, supported by Beijing’s efforts to boost domestic consumption, including an additional CNY 300 billion ($42.7 billion) in ultra-long special treasury bonds for a consumer goods trade program.

Zambia: Zambia’s annual inflation rate stood at 16.5% in April 2025, unchanged from the previous month and marking the softest pace in four months. Food inflation eased to 18.7% from 18.9% in March, supported by favourable rains that helped lower vegetable and fruit prices. Meanwhile, non-food inflation rose to 13.4% from 13.2%, reflecting continued pressure from the weaker kwacha. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 1%.

South Africa: South Africa’s inflation rate declined to 2.7% in March 2025 from 3.2% in February, below analysts’ expectations of 2.9% and marking the lowest level since June 2020. The decline was largely driven by a sharper fall in fuel prices and softer price growth in food, non-alcoholic beverages, and hospitality services. Core inflation eased to 3.1%, the lowest since September 2021, while monthly consumer prices rose by 0.4%, down from 0.9% in February.

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

  • The IMF downgraded Nigeria’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.2%, citing rising global instability, weaker commodity prices, and local policy challenges, while urging stronger fiscal and monetary measures to support growth.
  • The CBN’s January 2025 Economic Report showed signs of recovery with improved PMI and confidence levels, but a wider deficit looms as FG missed revenue targets, with oil earnings falling short and deficit financing likely to persist into Q2 2025.
  • Legend Internet Service PLC became the first telecoms firm listed on the NGX this year, adding N12.4bn to market cap after debuting at N5.64 per share.

Nigerian equity market: NGX rallies amid holiday-shortened week, dividend boost

Following the easter holiday, renewed optimism from Q1 earnings and dividend declarations helped the NGX ASI climb 1.46% to 105,752.61 points during the holiday-shortened trading week. Buying interest in 64 equities, led by INTBREW (+40.00%), NASCON (+26.22%), and VITAFOAM (+21.22%), offset declines in 27 stocks. MTNN (+5.58%) and GTCO (+6.78%) also posted strong gains, while DANGCEM (-10.00%) and VFD Group (-82.19%) lagged. Sector performance was largely positive, with Consumer Goods surging 8.65% WoW to top the charts. Overall, the market maintained bullish momentum despite fewer trading days.

Nigerian fixed-income market: DMO issues ₦714 billion treasury bills at the primary market auction.

At this week’s NTB auction, the DMO successfully raised N714 billion, significantly above the N400 billion initially offered, with total bids reaching N1.5 trillion. Unlike the previous auction, the DMO allotted a higher proportion of long-tenor bills at a slightly lower rate of 19.60%, compared to 19.63% previously. As a result, positive sentiment prevailed week-on-week (WoW), with average yields rising by 15 basis points to 20.83%, mainly driven by the long-tenor instruments. Meanwhile, activity in the bond market was muted as investors stayed cautious ahead of the upcoming auction. On a brighter note, Nigeria’s Eurobonds rebounded from earlier losses, with the average yield dropping by 53 basis points to 10.05%, supported by slight improvements in trade tariff discussions. Looking ahead, we expect a continuation of similar sentiment across the different segments of the market.