Global Economy

U.S.A: The U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in March 2025, far exceeding expectations, with strong gains in healthcare, retail, and transportation. The unemployment rate edged up slightly to 4.2% as more people joined the labor force, while wage growth moderated to 3.8% year-on-year. However, investor focus shifted to rising trade tensions after President Trump’s sweeping tariffs raised effective duty rates to a century-high. Economists warned that the resulting supply chain disruptions and weaker business sentiment could weigh on future job growth, especially in retail. Despite current labor market strength, the Fed is expected to resume rate cuts by June as inflation risks mount and confidence deteriorates.

Sub-Saharan African Economies

Eurozone: Eurozone inflation eased to 2.2% in March from 2.3% in February, driven by falling energy prices and slower service inflation, aligning with expectations. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, also declined to 2.4%, below forecasts. This supports growing bets on an ECB rate cut in April, especially as economic growth remains sluggish and the euro has strengthened. Services inflation cooled to 3.4%, while food prices rose 4.1%. Despite concerns over a tight labor market—with unemployment hitting a record low of 6.1%—markets now price in a 70–75% chance of a rate cut this April, with further easing expected into 2025.

Nigeria: Nigeria’s Stanbic IBTC PMI rose to 54.3 in March 2025, up from 53.7 in February, marking the strongest private sector expansion since early 2024. Growth in output, new orders, employment, and purchasing reflected improving demand, while supplier delivery times improved due to better vendor performance. Input cost inflation eased to its lowest since May 2023, leading to softer output price inflation for the third consecutive month. However, business confidence weakened, falling to a three-month low and below the series average.

Ghana: Ghana’s inflation slowed to 22.4% in March 2025, its lowest in five months, driven by a stable cedi and easing price pressures in both food and non-food categories. Despite the decline, it remains well above the central bank’s 6–10% target. Monthly inflation also slowed to 0.2%, the softest increase in seven months.

Domestic Economy

Major updates during the week:

  • Nigeria’s gross federally collected revenue rose by 5% QoQ to ₦7.2trn in Q4 2024, driven by improved oil receipts, yet full-year revenue of ₦25.5trn still fell short of budget targets due to underperformance in both oil and non-oil segments.
  • Nigeria’s net FX reserves surged to $23.11bn in 2024 from $3.99bn in 2023, buoyed by stronger oil production, trade surplus, and reforms, with further growth expected in 2025 as FX liquidity and investor confidence improve.
  • Trump’s sweeping 10% tariff on all imports, with higher rates on select countries—including a 14% tariff on Nigeria—poses minimal direct trade disruption but could indirectly pressure Nigeria through slower global growth and rising inflation.

Nigerian equity market: Banking sector shines in a dull trading week

The Nigerian equities market closed lower as cautious investor sentiment dampened activity in the holiday-shortened week. The NGX ASI declined by 0.14% WoW to 105,511.89 points, weighed down by selloffs in 51 stocks versus 23 gainers. Top laggards included UACN (-18.31%), OANDO (-13.13%), FIRSTHOLDCO (-7.64%), and FCMB (-6.70%). Meanwhile, gains in VFD (+20.76%), TRANSCOHOT (+7.13%), FIDSON (+7.76%), and NGX (+11.90%) offered some support. On a sectoral basis, four out of five of the major sectors closed in bearish territory. However, the Banking sector index closed positive, up 0.22% WoW, buoyed by FY’24 earnings releases. Market sentiment remained broadly cautious amid thinning participation.

Nigerian fixed-income market: Eurobond market faces pressure amid U.S. tariff concerns.

Market activities this week were largely bearish, supported by robust system liquidity, risk-off sentiment of offshore players, and the introduction of tariffs by the U.S. government. The secondary treasury bills market ended up 31 basis points week-on-week, largely driven by long-tenor instruments. The bond market, on the other hand, was quiet, with yields remaining at 18.71%, influenced by cautious play amongst investors. In the Eurobond market, Nigeria’s Eurobond witnessed significant bearish sentiment, as investors responded to the ongoing high yields in the global economy. This caused the average yield to rise by 130 basis points to close at 10.94% week-on-week. Looking ahead, we anticipate a relatively quiet session next week as market participants are likely to play cautiously.